Forex News

The unemployment rate in France climbed to 7.9% in Q4 2025, above the expected 7.8% and up from 7.7% in the previous quarter. This marks its highest level since Q3 2021, as the number of unemployed increased by 56,000 to 2.5 million, 0.6 points higher than a year earlier but still 2.6 points below its 2015 peak. By age, unemployment among 15–24-year-olds surged 2.4 points to 21.5%, rose 0.5 points to 16.0% for those aged 15–29, fell 0.2 points to 6.9% for 25–49-year-olds, and remained stable at 5.1% for those aged 50 and over. Female unemployment declined 0.1 points to 7.6%, while male unemployment rose 0.4 points to 8.1%. The employment rate for people aged 15–64 held at 69.4%, near a record high. The full-time employment rate remained stable at 57.5%, while part-time employment rose slightly to 11.8%. The activity rate reached 75.4%, its highest since records began.

Industrial production in Saudi Arabia rose by 8.9% year-on-year in December 2025, easing from a three-year high of 10.4% in the previous month. Growth in oil activities slowed (10.1% vs 12.9% in November), as output of coke and refined petroleum products tumbled (-3.6% vs 14.5%), offsetting stronger gains in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas (13.2% vs 12.6%). Meanwhile, non-oil activities expanded at a faster pace (5.8% vs 4.4%), despite a moderation in manufacturing output (3.2% vs 8.1%) and in water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities (9.4% vs 10.2%). In addition, the decline in electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply eased (-2.5% vs -4.3%) moderated. On a monthly basis, industrial activity fell 0.1%, notably improving from an upwardly revised 1.3% drop in November 2025.

Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate slowed to 11.9% in January 2026 from 12.3% in the previous month, though it remained above the market forecast of 11.7%. This marked the softest increase in consumer prices since last September, as the impact of higher fuel prices in October faded. Inflation eased for transport (27.5% vs 28.4% in December), restaurants and hotels (11.9% vs 12.8%), miscellaneous goods and services (10.4% vs 11.3%), and furnishings (10.8% vs 12.6%), while communications inflation remained steady at 0.4%. Meanwhile, inflation accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.5%), clothing (14.1% vs 12.8%), and housing (29.8% vs 29.2%) due to the lingering impact of rent increases. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 1.2% in January, accelerating from a 0.2% gain in December and marking the fastest monthly increase in three months

European equity markets were set to open little changed on Tuesday after a strong two-day rally, as investors turned cautious ahead of key US economic data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. On Monday, regional shares advanced on upbeat corporate news and data showing a sharp improvement in Eurozone investor confidence in February. On the macro front, markets will digest French unemployment figures and Turkish industrial production data later in the day. In corporate developments, Standard Chartered said its CFO Diego De Giorgi will step down with immediate effect, while Kering’s luxury brand Gucci reported a decline in fourth-quarter sales. In premarket trading, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures were little changed.

Industrial production in Finland rose by 2% year-on-year in December 2025, accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.7% increase in the previous month. This marked the third consecutive month of growth in industrial activity, driven by a sharp recovery in the output for mining and quarrying (7.6% vs -5% in November). Additionally, growth in the manufacturing sector rose further (3.1% vs 1.6%), with significant output increases for transport equipment (29% vs 8.6%) and other non-metallic mineral products (20.7% vs 6.1%). On the other hand, output for electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply declined by 3.8%, slipping from a 1.3% growth in the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output decreased by 0.8% in December, marking the first month of contraction in five months and reversing a 0.2% gain in the preceding period.

Manufacturing production in the Netherlands rose by 0.5% month-on-month in December 2025, after an upwardly revised 1% drop in November. Output rebounded for basic metal (13.6% vs -9.9% in November), machine (9.1% vs -0.9%), petroleum (0.8% vs -2.1%), rubber and plastics (1% vs -1.3%), and metal products (0.6% vs -2.2%). However, growth slowed sharply in the automotive and trailer segment (1.3% vs 9.8%), while the most significant declines were recorded in pharmaceuticals (-19.1% vs -9%) and leather and footwear (-8.2% vs -4.9%). On an annual basis, manufacturing output increased by 1.3% in December, following a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in the previous month. The strongest yearly growth was seen in the machinery industry (11.3% vs 1.1%), while the chemical sector had the biggest fall (-3.1% vs 0%).

Malaysian palm oil futures fell sharply on Tuesday, slipping below MYR 4,150 per tonne and reversing modest gains from the prior session. Prices hovered near their lowest level in almost three weeks, pressured by a firmer ringgit and weakness across edible oils on the Dalian exchange. Traders also turned cautious ahead of China’s upcoming CPI and PPI data later this week, given the country’s role as a key palm oil buyer. Losses, however, were partly capped by monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showing a tighter supply outlook. Palm oil stocks declined 7.72% mom in January, while production dropped 13.78%. At the same time, exports jumped 11.44%. Separately, an industry official noted that Malaysia’s ageing oil palm plantations are projected to expand to 2 million hectares by 2027 from about 1.7 million currently. Meanwhile, demand from top consumer India is expected to recover this year as prices ease, although competition from Chinese soyoil is likely to limit the upside.

Coal prices held above $115 per ton on Tuesday, hovering near one-year highs even after China’s main coal industry body cut its import outlook and flagged the potential for higher domestic output. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association lowered its 2026 coal import forecast to 465 million tons from 480 million tons projected about three weeks ago. The association also estimates that domestic production will reach 4.86 billion tons this year, up from a record 4.8 billion tons last year, noting output could be even higher if imports fall sharply. The revised projections followed moves by Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, to restrict shipments in an effort to support prices. Indonesia, which accounted for roughly 40% of China’s coal imports last year, is aiming to cut output by nearly a quarter this year to around 600 million tons.

Today's cryptos market is characterized by modest daily movements, with Ether standing out as the frontrunner with a -1.98% decrease.

New Zealand’s benchmark S&P/NZX 50 rose 0.5% to close at 13,514 on Tuesday, following a muted prior session. The gains were supported by Wall Street’s rebound on Monday, with US tech shares recovering from recent losses. Investor sentiment was further supported by a rally in Asian markets, boosting export-driven companies and contributing to broader regional gains. Sector-wise, health technology, consumer non-durables, technology, and distribution services finished in the green. Leading the gains across the bourse were Third Age Health (+2.1%), Fletcher Building (+2.2%), Fisher & Paykel (+1.8%), Port of Tauranga (+1.7%), and Mainfreight (+1.6%). Investors are now focusing on China’s inflation data, New Zealand’s top trading partner, expected to ease to 0.3% from December’s near three-year high of 0.8%, due Wednesday morning, providing further cues on overall market sentiment.

Top currency gainer is Japanese Yen (0.44%). Biggest losers are New Zealand Dollar (-0.29%), Australian Dollar (-0.27%) and British Pound (-0.08%). Meanwhile, Euro and Dollar Index were little changed.

The Indonesian rupiah weakened to around IDR 16,800 per dollar on Tuesday, reversing prior gains after Bank Indonesia reaffirmed plans to resume its rate-cutting cycle to support growth. While stressing decisions remain data-dependent, the signal reinforced expectations of further policy easing this year following 150bp cuts since September 2024. Domestic data added pressure, with December retail sales growth hitting a four-month low, underscoring softer consumer demand despite ongoing government support measures. Governance concerns also resurfaced as Thomas Djiwandono, President Prabowo’s nephew, was sworn in as deputy governor, prompting scrutiny of the central bank’s policy credibility. On the global front, the dollar index eased further after reports that Chinese regulators urged financial institutions to trim U.S. Treasury holdings to reduce concentration risks and guard against policy uncertainty. Still, domestic policy signals remained the dominant driver for the rupiah.

China’s 10-year government bond yield traded below 1.8% on Tuesday, nearing its lowest level in eight weeks, after Chinese regulators urged banks to curb excessive exposure to US Treasuries. Financial institutions were advised to rein in Treasury holdings and trim positions where exposure is high, citing concentration risk and market volatility. Still, the move was framed as market risk diversification rather than a geopolitical signal or a loss of confidence in US credit. The shift reinforces broader diversification away from dollar-denominated assets and could accelerate capital repatriation into Chinese markets, putting yields under pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China has been ramping up liquidity injections ahead of the Lunar New Year to cover a large temporary funding shortfall amid cash withdrawals linked to holiday spending. By supplying banks with extra cash, demand for government bonds rises, weighing further on yields.

Copper futures fell to around $5.9 per pound on Tuesday, pausing a two-day rebound amid signs of slowing demand in top consumer China ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Industrial activity in China slowed as manufacturers paused operations, while overall economic momentum softened. On the supply side, major mines continued to face challenges from power outages, prompting conservative production guidance. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association expects refined copper output to rise about 5% in 2026, roughly half the growth seen in 2025. Still, prices remain supported by strong global demand driven by the energy transition and ongoing AI-driven data-center expansion. A weaker dollar, pressured by concerns over declining foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets, also provided additional support.

Palladium futures fell to around $1,700 per ounce, retreating from recent highs as investors locked in profits following strong gains, while persistent softness across the platinum group metals weighed on sentiment. The broader sell-off as markets positioned ahead of key employment and inflation reports, with markets pricing in at least two 25-basis-point rate reductions in 2026, the first potentially as early as June. Further weighing on palladium prices, renewed diplomatic engagement in the Middle East has eased fears of a broader escalation in the US–Iran standoff, reducing demand for precious metals. However, investors remain cautious. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet US President Donald Trump in Washington this week to discuss developments in the Iran negotiations and broader regional security concerns, underscoring that strategic risks in the Middle East have not fully dissipated.

Indonesia’s retail sales grew 3.5% year-on-year in December 2025, slowing from 6.3% in the previous month and marking the eighth consecutive monthly increase, supported by government measures to boost domestic demand. It also marked the softest annual increase since August, with sales growth easing for food, beverages, and tobacco (5.9% vs 8.5% in November), automotive parts and accessories (14.8% vs 17.7%), and cultural and recreational goods (5.2% vs 8.1%). Meanwhile, fuel sales fell 7.1%, reversing a 0.8% increase previously. In addition, sales declined at faster rates for household appliances (-2.8% vs -1.6%), information and communication equipment (-30.0% vs -27.4%), and clothing (-7.0% vs -3.0%). On a monthly basis, retail activity rose 3.1%, up from a 1.5% increase in November and marking the strongest pace in nine months, highlighting resilient momentum in household consumption.

The offshore yuan advanced 6.9 per dollar on Tuesday, nearing its highest level in thirty-four months, as momentum built after Chinese regulators urged banks to curb excessive exposure to US Treasuries. Financial institutions were advised to rein in Treasury holdings, and trim positions where exposure is high, citing concerns over concentration risks and to mitigate the impact of uncertain US economic policies. The shift underscores a broader global move away from dollar assets and fueled expectations of a gradual structural shift in China’s currency strategy, especially after President Xi Jinping outlined ambitions for a “powerful currency” in state media earlier this month. Corporate demand for yuan also continued to surge ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Exporters and other companies typically convert dollars ahead of the week-long holiday to meet wages, supplier payments, and bonuses. Cumulative funds awaiting conversion since 2022 are estimated at around $1.13 trillion.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield fell about 2 basis points to 2.26% on Tuesday, retreating from three-week highs as investors reassessed the country’s policy outlook following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory. Markets are factoring in Takaichi’s pledge that her stimulus measures will not further strain public finances, while her supermajority is seen as providing greater policy clarity and reducing the risk of adverse fiscal scenarios. Her ruling coalition secured a two-thirds majority in the lower house, giving her a strong mandate to pursue higher spending and tax cuts. On Monday, she reiterated her commitment to suspend the 8% sales tax on food for two years.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dipped below 4.2% on Tuesday, falling for a second consecutive session as investors awaited key US economic data this week that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Reports due include the delayed employment and inflation data, along with retail sales figures. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett noted on Monday that US job gains could slow in coming months due to weaker labor force growth and higher productivity. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady in March, with two rate cuts priced in later this year. Treasury yields also eased despite reports that Chinese regulators had advised financial institutions to limit their US Treasury holdings to reduce concentration risks and mitigate the impact of uncertain US economic policies.

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% to around 4,130, while the Shenzhen Component inched up 0.05% to 14,215 on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as technology stocks rebounded for a second day. The move suggested easing concerns over heavy AI spending and potential disruption to software business models, which had triggered a global tech selloff last week. Tech shares led the advance, with notable performers including Eoptolink Technology (+2%), GCL System Integration (+4.2%), Cambricon Technologies (+2.4%) and Hygon Information (+5%). Clean energy and resource-related stocks also posted gains. In corporate news, COL Group surged 15% as media and AI-related firms rallied following ByteDance’s launch of a new AI video-generation model that exceeded market expectations.