Forex News

Canada’s Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) rose 1.7% month-over-month in September 2025, rebounding from a 0.8% decline in August. The increase was mainly driven by higher metal ore prices (6.3%), led by gold, silver, and platinum group metals (9.6%). Prices climbed for both gold (9.1%) and silver (10.3%) ores and concentrates. In contrast, crude energy products fell 0.9%, with synthetic crude down 2.2% and conventional crude down 0.4%. Oil prices weakened as markets priced in higher OPEC+ supply from a planned output increase in November and softer fuel demand amid signs of a slowing US economy. Excluding crude energy products, the RMPI increased 3.1%.

Canada’s industrial producer prices rose 0.8% month-over-month in September, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase, following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in August. The rise was driven by primary non-ferrous metals (+5.9%), with unwrought silver and silver alloys up 12.3% and unwrought gold and gold alloys up 9.1%, posting their largest monthly gains since April 2024 after the US Federal Reserve’s September 17 rate cut and amid expectations of further easing. Energy and petroleum products (+1.4%) also contributed, led by diesel (+2.5%) and finished motor gasoline (+1.4%). Meat, fish, and dairy products (+0.7%) rose, supported by fresh and frozen chicken (+4.3%) and beef and veal (+1.4%). Offsetting the gains, lumber and other wood products fell 4.4%, with softwood lumber down 10.7% following higher US duties on Canadian imports. On a yearly basis, producer prices increased 5.5% in September, marking the 12th consecutive annual gain, following a 3.7% increase in August.

Turkey’s BIST 100 index fell to around the 10,000 level in October 2025, its lowest since early July, before staging a modest rebound. The benchmark remains well below its record high set in August, as investors continue to weigh political uncertainty and rising inflation pressures. A key focus is the Turkish court ruling on the leadership dispute within the main opposition CHP, scheduled for October 24th. Adding to political tensions, prosecutors have sought authorization from the Interior Ministry to investigate Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, another potential challenger to President Erdogan. On the economic front, annual inflation accelerated for the first time in fifteen months, reaching 33.29% in September, though the central bank is still widely expected to deliver a 100 basis-point reduction this week. In corporate news, defense firm Aselsan has soared nearly 200% year to date, reflecting strong performance in the global defense sector, buoyed by rising military budgets worldwide.

Copper futures were at $4.95 per pound on Monday, holding the sharp pullback since testing the over-two-month high of $5.12 last week as markets continued to assess downside risks to demand in the near-term. Annual GDP growth in China, the world's top copper consumer and host of the largest manufacturing sector, slowed in the third quarter despite optimistic recent figures for industrial production, which grew 6.5% in September instead of the expected 5%. The data refrained from catalyzing a rebound on industrial demand as trade conflicts between the US and China threatened global demand for base metals. Consequently, the Yunnan Copper Premium, which measures demand for physical copper deliveries in China, slumped to $36 per tonne, compared to nearly $100 in April. Still, supply pressures prevented a pullback. A series of mining disruptions, headlined by the halt of activity in Indonesia's Grasberg mine, reignited deficit concerns for major consumers.

US stock futures opened the week higher, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts both up 0.3%, while Dow Jones futures added roughly 65 points. Traders are preparing for a busy week of earnings, including Tesla, and the release of the delayed CPI report scheduled for Friday. Concerns over regional banks, which had triggered a sell-off last week, eased following strong results from several regional lenders. Investor sentiment also improved after President Trump sought to de-escalate trade tensions with China, ahead of a new round of US–China trade talks in Malaysia. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that Trump has exempted dozens of products from reciprocal tariffs. On the downside, the government shutdown entered its fourth week, with no clear resolution in sight. Megacaps were mostly higher in premarket trading, including Apple (1.5%), Amazon (0.2%), Meta (0.6%), Alphabet (0.5%), Broadcom (0.9%), Tesla (1%) while Microsoft traded around the flatline and Nvidia was down 0.2%.

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to 4.553%, the lowest in ten weeks, as investors increased bets on Bank of England rate cuts following softer economic data and dovish comments from Governor Andrew Bailey. Bailey warned that the UK economy is operating “below potential” and that the labor market is showing signs of softening, with unemployment rising to 4.8% in the three months to August, the highest since May 2021. Also, recent data showed GDP grew just 0.1% in August after contracting in July, pointing to tepid third-quarter growth. Markets now fully price in a rate cut by February, with a small chance of one as soon as December. Bailey noted the growing tension between persistent inflation risks and weakening employment, suggesting the timing of future policy moves remains uncertain. Meanwhile, fiscal concerns are also in focus ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s November 26 budget, where she is expected to announce spending cuts and possible tax increases.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield edged up to 2.59% on Monday, moving further away from Friday’s four-month low of 2.523%, as concerns over US-China trade tensions and the stability of US regional banks eased. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to meet in Malaysia this week to prevent a potential escalation in US tariffs on Chinese goods—a move President Donald Trump recently described as unsustainable ahead of his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. Meanwhile, money markets have ramped up expectations for rate cuts from both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, pricing in a 25-basis-point ECB cut by July 2026 and at least two 25-basis-point Fed cuts in its final meetings of the year.

Paris’ CAC 40 reversed early gains to trade 0.2% lower at 8,170 points on Monday, after hitting an all-time high of 8,239.67 earlier in the session. BNP Paribas tumbled 8% following a $20.75 million US jury verdict against the bank over its alleged complicity in Sudan atrocities two decades ago, with peers Crédit Agricole and Société Générale falling more than 2%. On the upside, Kering surged 3.5% after agreeing to sell its beauty division to L’Oréal for €4 billion, while L’Oréal shares added 0.4% on the news. Thales rebounded 2.7% from last week’s decline, supported by renewed demand for defense stocks after conflict reignited in Gaza and as the Ukraine war showed no signs of easing. Airbus climbed 1.1% after India’s IndiGo finalized an order for 30 A350 aircraft. In other news, investors digested S&P Global Ratings’ downgrade of France, citing heightened fiscal risks and persistent uncertainty surrounding government finances.

Italy’s current account recorded a surplus of €4.7 billion in August 2025, more than doubling the €1.7 billion recorded in the same month last year. The increase was mainly driven by a wider goods (€2.5 billion vs €1.8 billion in August 2024) and services (€1.8 billion vs €0.8 billion) surplus. At the same time, the primary income surplus widened sharply to €2.2 billion from €0.5 billion, while the secondary income deficit widened slightly to €1.9 billion from €1.5 billion. From January to August, the current account surplus rose to €27.2 billion from €24.9 billion.

Eurozone construction output increased 0.1% year-on-year in August 2025, easing from a 0.7% rise in July. Output eased for civil engineering (2.6% vs 3.6% in July) and specialised construction activities (2% vs 2.5%). In addition, production fell faster for construction of buildings (-3.8% vs -2.6). Among the bloc’s largest economies, construction fell in Germany, (-1.1% vs -1.4%), France (-1.3% vs -1.7%), and Spain (-1.4% vs -3.8%), but rose in Italy (4% vs 5.4%). From the previous month, construction output went down 0.1%, after a 0.5% gain in July.

Hong Kong’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 3.9% in the three months ending September 2025, the highest since August 2022, up from 3.7% in the previous month. The number of unemployed rose by approximately 4,600 to 155,600, while total employment slipped 6,100 to 3.67 million. Jobless rates increased across several key sectors, with the social work activities and construction industries particularly affected. Youth unemployment (ages 20–29) rose to 8.0%, the highest since October 2021, up from 7.8% in August. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged down to 57.1% from 57.2%. Looking ahead, some sectors are expected to continue facing employment challenges amid economic restructuring and rising external uncertainties, and the government will monitor the labor market while supporting job-seekers

Top currency losers are Brazilian Real (-0.33%). Gains are led by New Zealand Dollar (0.31%), Euro (0.08%) and Dollar Index (0.06%). Meanwhile British Pound was little changed.

Producer prices in Poland declined by 1.2% year-on-year in September 2025, the same pace as in the previous month. Still, this marked the softest contraction in producer prices since March, mainly due to lower costs of mining and quarrying (-4.7% vs -6.9% in August), manufacturing (-1.2% vs -1.1%), and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-0.1% vs -0.8%). Meanwhile, prices continued to increase for water supply and waste management (at 2.6%). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.2% in September, following a 0.4% decrease in the preceding period.

The Hang Seng surged 612 points, or 2.4%, to close at 25,859 on Monday, recovering sharply from steep losses in the prior session as all sectors advanced. Investor sentiment was lifted by a strong rise in U.S. futures after President Trump indicated he could lower tariffs on China if Beijing also takes steps benefiting the U.S., including resuming soybean purchases. Optimism was further supported by bets that China may roll out fresh stimulus following Q3 GDP growth of 4.8%, the weakest in a year. Chinese policymakers are meeting this week to discuss the latest Five-Year Plan ahead of the December Politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference. On the corporate front, Sany Heavy Industry plans to raise up to HKD 12.36 billion through its Hong Kong listing, tapping renewed investor interest in Chinese equities. Notable movers included Ubtech Robotics (9.0%), Zhejiang Leapmotor (6.7%), AIA Group (4.7%), Shenzhou Intl. (4.5%), and (SMIC 3.7%).

Bitcoin and Ether are on the rise. Bitcoin is leading the charge with a 2.37% gain.

Poland’s corporate sector wages rose by 7.5% year-on-year to PLN 8,750.34 in September 2025, following a 7.1% increase in August and matching market expectations. Compared to the previous month, wages fell by 0.2%. On a year-to-date basis, corporate sector wages grew by 8.1%.

Poland’s industrial production climbed by 7.4% year-on-year in September 2025, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month. This marked the sharpest growth in industrial activity since April 2024, mainly driven by a significant rise in manufacturing (8.2% vs 1.1% in August) and water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation services (6.3% vs 1.5%). At the same time, the contraction eased in mining and quarrying (-1.5% vs -2%). Meanwhile, output fell further for electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (-3.6% vs -6.6%). On a monthly basis, industrial production advanced by 16.1% in September, rebounding from a 7.1% drop in the preceding period.

BNP Paribas shares decreased to 73.20 EUR, the lowest since June 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, BNP Paribas lost 6.91%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 11.31%.

The Eurozone’s current account surplus narrowed to EUR 13 billion in August 2025 from EUR 25.3 billion a year earlier. The goods surplus fell to EUR 8 billion from EUR 17.1 billion, and the primary income surplus decreased to EUR 2 billion from EUR 5 billion. Also, the secondary income deficit widened to EUR 15 billion from EUR 13.4 billion. On the other hand, the services surplus rose to EUR 18 billion from EUR 16.7 billion. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the current account surplus fell to EUR 11.9 billion in August from EUR 29.8 billion in the previous month, below market expectations of EUR 22.5 billion.

Top commodity gainers are Soybeans (0.91%), Cotton (0.72%) and Sugar (0.65%). Biggest losers are Rice (-0.65%).