Forex News

Bitcoin and Ether are on the rise. Ether is leading the charge with a 3.29% gain. Bitcoin follows with a 2.72% increase.

Estonia’s producer prices increased by 2.8% yoy in March 2025, slowing sharply from a 6.1% growth in the previous month which had represented the steepest rise since March 2023. Cost moderated for most components: mining and quarrying (3.6% vs 4.0% in February), electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning (12.3% vs 53.3%), and manufacturing (1.9% s 2.3%). Meanwhile, prices of water supply, sewerage; waste management and remediation activities quickened slightly (9.1% vs 8.8%). On a monthly basis, the PPI shrank by 3.5%, reversing a 3.3% increase in February and marking the first decline in four months.

Top currency gainers are Polish Zloty (1.49%), Swedish Krona (1.28%), Swiss Franc (1.16%), Euro (1.14%), British Pound (0.65%) and Japanese Yen (1.02%). Biggest losers are Turkish Lira (-1.41%), Dollar Index (-0.54%) and Brazilian Real (-0.44%).

Indonesia's trade surplus declined to USD 4.33 billion in March 2025, down from USD 4.58 billion a year earlier, but still exceeding market expectations of a USD 2.64 billion surplus. Exports unexpectedly grew by 3.16% year-on-year, marking the twelfth consecutive month of expansion, though it was the softest pace since last July. This figure easily beat expectations for a 3.4% decline, despite easing sharply from a marginally revised 13.86% surge in the previous month. Imports rose 5.34% year-on-year, below forecasts of a 6.6% increase, following 2.3% growth in February. Last year, Indonesia posted a USD 31.04 billion surplus, narrowing from USD 36.89 billion in 2023.

Indonesia's imports rose 5.34% yoy to a three-month peak of USD 18.92 billion in March 2025, accelerating from a 2.30% growth in February and marking the strongest increase since December. However, the latest result fell short of market consensus of 6.6%, amid concerns over the impact of rising US tariffs. Non-oil and gas imports grew 7.91% to USD 15.79 billion, faster than the prior 3.47% rise. However, oil and gas imports dropped further (-5.98% vs -3.76%) to USD 3.13 billion, due to a decline in purchases of crude oil (-8.21%) even as oil products edged higher (0.73%). Imports rose from China (38.01%), Japan (15.78%), Taiwan (9.10%), India (6.68%), and the EU (6.02%), notably from Germany (4.84%). In contrast, purchases slipped from the US (-5.95%), South Korea (-28.93%), and Australia (-11.18%). Arrivals from ASEAN countries shrank (-7.59%), mainly from Singapore (-6.68%) and Thailand (-14.37%). During the first three months of 2025, imports added 1.47% to USD 55.70 billion.

Exports from Indonesia unexpectedly grew by 3.16% year-on-year to a three-month high of USD 23.25 billion in March 2025, beating forecasts of a 3.4% fall, despite easing from a marginally revised 13.86% jump in February. This marked the 12th straight month of export growth, though it was the softest pace since last July as non-oil and gas exports rose by 2.56% to USD 21.80 billion, slowing sharply from a 15.40% surge in February. Sales grew to the U.S. (20.06%), China (9.51%), ASEAN (6.82%), and the EU (21.52%). Among commodities, sales increased mainly for animal/vegetable fats and oils (48.25%), iron and steel (11.84%), and machinery and equipment, mechanics, and parts thereof (19.94%). By contrast, sales of mineral fuels, the largest contributor to non-oil exports, slumped 21.91%. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports surged by 13.05% to USD 1.45 billion, boosted by a jump in oil products (18.03%) and natural gas (13.10%). For Q1 of 2025, exports rose by 6.93% yoy to USD 66.62 billion.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose above 4.35% on Monday, rising for a second consecutive session as investors dumped US assets amid growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. The move comes amid reports that the White House is exploring whether it can remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with President Donald Trump growing increasingly frustrated over the central bank’s reluctance to cut interest rates. This political uncertainty, combined with fears over the economic fallout from ongoing tariffs, has heightened market volatility. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee added to the cautious tone over the weekend, warning that tariffs could cause US economic activity to “fall off” by the summer. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has initiated trade talks with several key partners, most notably Japan, though direct negotiations with China have yet to start.

Bitcoin jumped more than 2% to above $87,000 on Monday, breaking out of a week-long consolidation to reach its highest levels since late March. The top cryptocurrency found renewed support on safe-haven demand as the US dollar weakened on growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and the potential economic fallout of the trade war. Reports that the White House is considering the removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, amid President Donald Trump’s frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates, have fueled market volatility. Adding to the unease, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned over the weekend that tariffs could cause US economic activity to “fall off” by the summer. Bitcoin’s rise reflects broader demand for alternative assets as investors navigate growing geopolitical and policy risks.

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 3,950 per tonne, marking the sixth straight session of losses and notching a seven-month low. This decline stems from persistent concerns over rising production as plantation activities resumed post-holidays. Traders were also cautious, anticipating heightened market pressure once the 90-day US tariff pause concludes. In related markets, crude oil prices dropped over 1.5%, pressured by progress in nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. However, palm oil losses were partially offset by data from Intertek Testing Services, showing an 11.9% rise in Malaysian palm oil exports during April 1–20 compared to the previous month. In India, the world's largest palm oil importer, March imports surged nearly 14%, with further increases expected due to declining inventories and upcoming festive demand. Additionally, escalating US-China trade tensions may lead China to reduce US soybean imports, potentially boosting palm oil demand as a substitute.

China’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 1.65% on Monday, as investors were in muted reaction following the release of People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy decision. The central bank expectedly kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month in April 2025, with the one-year loan prime rate remaining at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR was held at 3.6%. The decision underscores the central bank’s commitment to stabilizing the yuan amid intensifying trade tensions with the US. Meanwhile, the Chinese government ramped up fiscal support, with budget spending surging to CNY 9.26 trillion in the first quarter of 2025. The increased expenditure aims to stimulate domestic demand and cushion the economy against mounting pressures, including uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, persistent deflationary trends, and an ongoing downturn in the property sector.

The Australian dollar climbed to around $0.64 on Monday, approaching a four-month high as broad weakness in the US dollar continued to support commodity-linked currencies. The greenback came under pressure amid concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence, following reports that the White House is exploring the potential removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. President Donald Trump has expressed frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming May meeting. Some market participants are even pricing in a larger, 50 basis-point cut, as fears of a global economic slowdown intensify in light of escalating trade tensions. Investors will also be watching Australia’s PMI data due later this week for further clues on the economy’s health. Meanwhile, trading volumes are likely to remain muted as local markets remain closed for Easter Monday.

The offshore yuan rose to around 7.28 per dollar on Monday, rebounding from losses seen the previous week after the People's Bank of China expectedly kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month in April 2025. The one-year loan prime rate was held steady at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR remained at 3.6%. The move signals the central bank's continued focus on stabilizing the yuan in the face of growing trade tensions with the US. Meanwhile, the Chinese government significantly increased its budget spending to CNY 9.26 trillion in the first three months of 2025, aiming to boost domestic demand and buffer the economy against mounting challenges, including escalating US tariffs, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property slump. Externally, the yuan also found support from a depreciating US dollar amid President Donald Trump's renewed threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell and pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

The New Zealand dollar rose toward $0.60 on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence under the Trump administration. The greenback came under pressure as White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett stated on Friday that President Trump and his team were continuing to study whether they could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, following Trump’s remark a day earlier that Powell’s termination "cannot come fast enough," as he called for the Fed to lower interest rates. On the domestic front, markets still fully expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its 3.5% cash rate by 25bps in May, and lower it to 2.75% by year-end. This came despite last week’s stronger-than-expected first-quarter consumer inflation figures.

The Japanese yen strengthened past 141 per dollar on Monday, marking a seven-month high as the dollar weakened amid rising concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. The move followed reports that the White House is exploring the possibility of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with President Donald Trump growing increasingly frustrated over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates. On the trade front, Japan is reportedly considering boosting imports of soybeans and rice as a concession in ongoing tariff negotiations with the US. American officials have criticized Japan for market barriers in sectors like automobiles and rice, while also pushing for increased imports of US meat, fish products, and potatoes. Looking ahead, market attention is turning to next week’s Bank of Japan policy meeting, where the central bank is expected to keep the policy rate steady at 0.5%.

China said on Monday that it "firmly opposes" any country making trade negotiations with the U.S. that come at Beijing’s expense, warning it would take “countermeasures” in a “resolute and reciprocal manner.” The statement from China’s commerce ministry came amid reports that the Trump administration is pressuring other countries to limit trade with China in exchange for U.S. tariff exemptions. While most countries face a 10% blanket U.S. tariff, Chinese products are subject to levies as high as 145%, as Beijing retaliates with duties of up to 125% on American goods. Several countries are currently negotiating with Washington to reduce tariffs, even as the broader Washington-Beijing trade disputes continue. China stated it respects others’ efforts to resolve trade issues with the U.S. “on an equal footing,” but warned against deals that would undermine China’s interests. The ministry stressed that China is both “determined and capable” of protecting its rights.

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% to above 3,290 while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.5% to 9,830 on Monday, recouping losses from the previous session as the People’s Bank of China left key lending rates unchanged, signaling a focus on stabilizing the yuan amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Investors remained cautious over the escalating trade tensions with the US, as no progress has been made toward direct negotiations between Beijing and Washington. Despite the uncertainty, mainland markets have seen a gradual recovery since the latest round of tit-for-tat tariffs earlier this month, supported by state-backed buying from domestic financial institutions. Technology stocks led the rally, with standout performances from Cambricon Technologies (+6%), Talkweb Information (+1.5%), Hytera Communications (+10%), Shenzhen Forms (+8.1%), and Lakala Payment (+16.5%).

Top currency gainers are Japanese Yen (0.88%), New Zealand Dollar (0.56%), Indonesian Rupiah (0.37%) and Chinese Yuan (0.14%). Biggest losers are South Korean Won (-0.02%).

Gold surged more than 1% to above $3,380 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid rising global trade tensions, as well as a weaker U.S. dollar. Last week, President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into potential new tariffs on all U.S. critical mineral imports—a significant escalation in the trade dispute with global partners, particularly China. In addition, the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low as investor confidence in the U.S. economy took another hit over Trump's plans to shake up the Federal Reserve. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday that the Trump administration was continuing to study whether they could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a move that has great consequence for the central bank's independence and for global markets. Moreover, the European Central Bank's recent interest rate cut enhanced the precious metal's allure in a low-yield environment.

China ramped up its budget spending in the first quarter at the fastest pace since 2022, allocating nearly 22% of planned outlays to counter weakening foreign demand amid an ongoing tariff war. The move is part of a broader strategy to boost domestic demand and support industries hit by trade tensions. Increased spending targets key areas like infrastructure, tech innovation, and social welfare, aiming to create jobs, boost confidence, and sustain growth. Despite these efforts, several major banks have cut China's 2025 growth forecast to 4% or lower—below the government's target of around 5%. Officials are now focusing on implementing measures announced during last month’s parliamentary session and have signaled readiness to introduce further stimulus if needed. By acting early, Beijing hopes to shield the economy and maintain momentum despite external pressures.

The South Korean won rose to around 1,420 per dollar on Monday, rebounding from losses seen the previous week as investor sentiment improved ahead of US–South Korea tariff negotiations later this week. The meeting scheduled to take place on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings will feature South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun meeting with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The discussions come as South Korea pushes to reduce the 25% reciprocal tariff imposed by US President Trump, which is currently paused but still looming. The won's appreciation was also supported by a weaker US dollar, following President Trump’s renewed threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell and pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.