Forex News

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 52.2 in April 2025 from a preliminary reading of 50.8, and compared to 57 in March. Despite the upward revision, consumer sentiment fell for a forth consecutive month to the lowest since July 2022, as consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. The expectations gauge plummeted to 47.3, also the lowest since July 2022, compared to a preliminary reading of 47.1 and 52.6 in March. Economic conditions worsened less than initially expected (59.8 vs 56.5 in the first estimate and 63.8 in March). On the price front, year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 6.5%, the highest since 1981, due to trade policy announcements. However, the figure was slightly smaller than 6.7% in the preliminary release. Long-run inflation expectations climbed to 4.4% from 4.1%.

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the University of Michigan, were revised slightly down to 6.5% in April 2025, from an earlier estimate of 6.7%, yet remained above March’s 5%. It was the highest reading since November 1981. In the meantime, the five-year outlook was unrevised at 4.4% in April, the highest since June 1991, up from 4.1% in the previous month.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index hovered below the flatline at the 24,700 mark on Friday, halting a three-day winning streak as pressure from mining giants offset support from the tech, financial and energy sectors. Bullion-linked equities led the decline. Agnico Eagle fell almost 1% as gold prices sharply retreated, despite nearly doubling its first-quarter profit on the back of robust production and lower operating costs. Wheaton Precious, Barrick Gold and Franco-Nevada likewise dropped between 1.3% and 1.9%. On the flip side, Shopify, Brookfield and Suncor added between 0.7% and 1.9%, helping to cushion losses on the Toronto exchange. Meanwhile, traders parsed conflicting trade-war signals with reports that China might suspend its 125% tariff on certain U.S. imports were swiftly rebutted by official denials, even as President Trump said his administration remained in discussions with Beijing. The Toronto exchange was set for a weekly advance of around 2%.

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, was up for a third straight session on Friday, rising 1.5% to a new high since April 7 at 1,373 points, on higher demand across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which transports 150,000-ton cargoes like iron ore and coal, also advanced for the third day, rising 2.3% to 1,889 points; and the panamax index, which usually tracks vessels carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grains, rose for the eighth straight session, increasing 1.5% to 1,392 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased one point to 977 points. For the week, the benchmark index rose nearly 9%, notching its second straight weekly gain.

Economic activity in Mexico decreased by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2025, the steepest fall since March 2024, following a flat reading in January, but slightly better than forecasts of a 0.8% contraction. Multiple sectors saw declines, including mining (-9.2%), agriculture (-4.1%), animal husbandry and livestock farming (-2.3%), and manufacturing (-0.3%). On the other hand, construction rose by 0.4%. The services sector fell by 0.3%, driven mainly by a sharp decline in wholesale trade (-8.5%) and transport, mail, and warehousing (-3.7%). Meanwhile, the largest increases were recorded in professional, scientific, and technical services (20.6%) and business support, waste management, and remediation services (16.5%). On a monthly basis, economic activity rose by 1%.

The Ibovespa hovered below the flatline at the 134,580 level on Friday, as investors digested disappointing earnings, the latest inflation data and evolving global trade dynamics. Mining heavyweight Vale slid over 2% after reporting a 17% year-on-year decline in first-quarter profits. Meanwhile, April’s annual mid-month inflation gauge rose to 5.49% in line with consensus but still elevated—and reinforced expectations that Copom will press on with further rate hikes and maintain tight financing conditions. Global uncertainty compounded domestic strains, as Washington and Beijing’s flirtation with tariff rollbacks failed to inspire confidence and kept investors on the sidelines. Although industrial champion WEG and food producers JBS and BRF gained between 1.8% and 3.2%, these pockets of strength were overshadowed by disappointing corporate results, persistent core inflation and trade-war jitters. Still the Ibovespa was poised for a weekly gain of over 3.5%.

T-Mobile Us decreased to a 11-week low of 238.60 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, T-Mobile Us lost 7.22%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 46.48%.

The three major averages in the US swung between small gains and losses on Friday, after gaining in the previous three sessions, as traders weigh confusing signals on trade developments and a fresh batch of corporate earnings. There were reports that China was considering suspending its 125% tariff on certain US imports, but Chinese authorities stated that no tariff negotiations were underway. Meanwhile, President Trump said his administration was in discussions with Beijing. Communication services was by far the top performer while energy, materials and health booked the biggest losses. On the corporate front, Intel shares tumbled more than 7% after issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook. T-Mobile also fell over 8% after reporting lower-than-anticipated postpaid phone subscriber growth. On the upside, Alphabet gained around 3% after delivering earnings that beat estimates. Considering the full week, the S&P 500 is up 3.8%, the Nasdaq gained 5.4% and the Dow added 2% so far.

Boeing increased to a 4-week high of 177.53 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Boeing lost 3.46%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 5.6%.

Charles Schwab increased to a 4-week high of 80.21 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Charles Schwab lost 1.68%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.12%.

Alphabet increased to a 4-week high of 167.32 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Alphabet lost 6.45%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 2.24%.

Gold fell past $3,290 per ounce on Friday, erasing gains from the prior session after Beijing announced exemptions on certain U.S. goods from its 125 % tariffs—signaling a thaw in the trade dispute and diminishing bullion’s appeal as a hedge. Simultaneously, the dollar index approached the 100 mark—making dollar-priced gold costlier for overseas buyers—while U.S. Treasury yields edged higher as Fed officials reiterated a patient stance on policy. Gold has wiped out earlier advances and is poised for a weekly retreat, after it reached a fresh high of $3,500 earlier this week amid U.S. growth concerns but then retreated after Trump tempered his comments on Fed independence. Gold has risen roughly 30 % year-to-date, while the gold-to-silver ratio has climbed to its highest level since 1994 excluding the pandemic, underscoring bullion’s relative strength.

Canadian manufacturing sales fell 1.9% month-over-month in March 2025, following a 0.2% increase February and below expectations of a flat reading. It marks the the first decline in six months, preliminary estimates showed. The largest decreases were in the petroleum and coal product, primary metal, and transportation equipment subsectors.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 3bps to 4.29% on Friday, extending Thursday’s nearly 4 basis point decline, as traders closely monitored trade war developments and clung to hopes of possible de-escalation. Reports suggested that China was considering suspending its 125% tariff on certain US imports, though Chinese authorities denied any ongoing tariff negotiations. Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated that his administration was in discussions with Beijing. At the same time, expectations for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts provided additional support to bond markets. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated he would back rate cuts if aggressive tariffs begin to weigh on the labor market. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled that the central bank could act as soon as June, provided there is clear evidence about the economy’s trajectory. Markets are currently pricing in a 25bps cut in June and anticipate a total of three cuts by year-end.

Brazil's consumer price index rose 0.43% month-over-month in the first half of April 2025, down from a 0.64% increase in the same period of March and in line with market expectations. Transportation was the only category to record a decline (-0.44%), while the largest increases were observed in food and beverages (+1.14%) and health and personal care (+0.96%). Together, these two segments accounted for 88% of the month’s overall inflation. On an annual basis, inflation accelerated to 5.49%, the highest rate since February 2023, up from 5.26% in the previous period, and broadly in line with forecasts.

Retail sales in Canada likely rose by 0.7% from the previous month in March 2025, according to preliminary estimates. This comes after a 0.4% decline in February, bringing sales to C$69.4 billion, in line with the initial estimate and marking the second consecutive month of declining retail sales. Sales were down in four of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.6%), with all four store categories in this subsector registering declines. On the other hand, the largest increases were seen for food and beverage retailers (+2.8%) and miscellaneous store retailers (+2.3%). Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, were up 0.5% in February. Retail sales fell across seven provinces, with Nova Scotia (-2.6%) and Quebec (-0.9%) leading the declines, while Manitoba saw the largest increase (+1.8%). On a yearly basis, retail turnover surged 4.7% in February.

US stock futures turned lower on Friday, with contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.3%, while Dow Jones futures slipped nearly 180 points, halting a three-day winning streak. The decline came amid mixed and confusing signals on trade developments and as investors weighed a fresh batch of corporate earnings. There were reports that China was considering suspending its 125% tariff on certain US imports, but Chinese authorities stated that no tariff negotiations were underway. Meanwhile, President Trump said his administration was in discussions with Beijing. On the corporate front, Intel shares tumbled more than 7% in premarket trading after issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook. T-Mobile also fell over 5% after reporting lower-than-anticipated postpaid phone subscriber growth. On the upside, Alphabet gained around 4% after delivering earnings that beat estimates. Considering the full week, the S&P 500 is up 3.8%, the Nasdaq gained 5.4% and the Dow added 2% so far.

The Bank of Russia kept its key interest rate unchanged at a record high of 21% on April 25th 2025, aligning with market expectations. The central bank noted that although inflationary pressures, including core inflation, are gradually easing, they remain elevated. It also cautioned that a further slowdown in global economic growth and a drop in oil prices, especially amid rising trade tensions, could add inflationary pressure through the ruble's exchange rate dynamics. Meanwhile, the central bank expects inflation to slow to 7.0–8.0% in 2025 and return to 4.0% by 2026. In March, Russia’s annual inflation rate rose to 10.3%. The central bank left its 2025 economic growth forecast unchanged at 1%–2% and reaffirmed that monetary policy will remain tight for an extended period to ensure inflation returns to target.

Government bonds yields remain mixed on Friday. Top losers are Mexico 10Y (-36.90bps).

Top currency losers are Swedish Krona (-0.55%), Japanese Yen (-0.54%), South Korean Won (-0.50%), Euro (-0.34%) and British Pound (-0.31%). Gains are led by Dollar Index (0.28%).