Forex News

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell nearly 6 basis points to 4.36% on Thursday, extending a similar decline in the previous session, amid renewed trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and lower-than-expected inflation. President Trump announced plans to send formal letters to key trading partners within the next one to two weeks, outlining unilateral tariff measures aimed at pressuring countries into new trade agreements. Geopolitical concerns also weighed on sentiment after Iran threatened to strike US military bases if nuclear negotiations break down. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected consumer and producer inflation reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice before year-end. Traders are also closely watching a key 30-year bond auction scheduled for today, which will provide additional insight into demand for longer-duration debt. On Wednesday, a $39 billion auction of 10-year notes drew strong demand.

US stock futures fell Thursday as President Trump threatened to impose unilateral tariffs in two weeks, rattling investor sentiment. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, while Dow futures declined by 185 points. Trump hinted that a July 8 trade deadline might not need extending, citing a “great deal” with China, though specifics remain vague. A framework was reached in London after two days of US-China talks, but it still awaits final approval. The latest PPI data reinforced softer-than-expected inflation data, with May’s PPI rising just 0.1%. In premarket trading, Boeing shares sank over 7% after an Air India 787 crash, while Oracle surged 7% on strong earnings and cloud growth.

Initial jobless claims in the US held steady at 248,000 in the first week of June, unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure and defying market expectations for a drop to 240,000. The figure remained at its highest level since early October 2024, signaling early signs of softening in the labor market amid persistent economic uncertainty. The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, rose by 5,000 to 240,250—its highest level since late August 2023. Meanwhile, continuing claims jumped by 54,000 to 1,956,000 in the week ending May 31, the highest since mid-November 2021 and well above the forecast of 1,910,000. In a closely watched segment, initial claims filed by federal government employees—which have been under scrutiny following recent dismissals by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—rose by 23 to 561 in the last week of May.

Core producer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.1% over a month in May of 2025, after a revised 0.2% fall in the prior month and below market estimates of a 0.3% increase. From the previous year, core producer prices rose 3% in May, the least since August 2024, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.2% increase in April and below the expected 3.1% advance.

US producer prices edged up 0.1% month-over-month in May 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.2% fall in April and compared to forecasts of a 0.2% increase. Prices for goods went up 0.2%, with cost for tobacco rising 0.9%. Prices for gasoline, processed poultry, roasted coffee, residential natural gas, and oilseeds also increased. In contrast, prices for jet fuel declined 8.2%. Also, cost for services inched up 0.1%, with margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling jumping 2.9%. Cost for traveler accommodation services; apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; alcohol retailing; and system software publishing also moved higher. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services fell 1.1%. Meanwhile, core producer prices increased 0.1%, well below forecasts of a 0.3% rise. Year-on-year, producer prices increased 2.6%, in line with expectations, after an upwardly revised 2.5% increase in April. The annual core rate slowed to 3% from 3.2% while forecasts were pointing to 3.1%.

The annual inflation rate in Ireland eased to 1.7% in May 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, marking the slowest pace in five months. The deceleration was mainly driven by a sharp price decline in transport (-2.4% vs 1.8% in April), as well as softer price increases in housing and utilities (2.0% vs 2.2%), restaurants and hotels (2.8% vs 3.3%), and recreation and culture (2.4% vs 4.2%). Conversely, this slowdown was partially offset by faster price growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.0% vs 3.4%), miscellaneous goods and services (2.4% vs 2.1%), and alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics (3.1% vs 2.2). Meanwhile, core inflation — measured by the CPI excluding energy and unprocessed food — declined to 1.9%, the lowest since July 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged in May, following a 0.4% rise in April.

The dollar index extended its decline on Thursday, falling below 97.8 to reach its lowest level since 2022, as renewed trade tensions and geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. President Trump announced plans to send formal letters to major trading partners within the next one to two weeks, outlining unilateral tariff measures aimed at pressuring countries into new trade agreements. This comes as the current 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire next month. Adding to market unease, geopolitical tensions intensified after Iran threatened to strike US bases if nuclear talks collapse. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data added to the downward pressure on the greenback. The weaker inflation prints bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver two interest rate cuts this year. The dollar posted its steepest losses against the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen.

DXY decreased to a 3-year low of 97.86. Over the past 4 weeks, Dollar Index lost 3.09%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 6.99%.

The annual inflation rate in Portugal was confirmed at a three-month high of 2.3% in May of 2025, up from 2.1% in April, amid increases in prices of unprocessed food (4.01%), processed food (1.11%), and energy (0.11%). By expenditure category, the largest year-on-year increases were seen in restaurants and hotels (6.14%), housing and utilities (4.16%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.55%), recreation and culture (3.72%), and education (3.41%). The core inflation index, excluding energy and unprocessed food components, came in at 2.2%, slightly below the preliminary 2.3%, yet higher than April’s 2.1%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% in May, slightly below the earlier estimate of 0.4% and following a 0.7% increase in the prior month.

India’s consumer price inflation eased to 2.82% in May 2025, down from 3.16% in April and below market expectations of 3%. This marked the lowest reading since February 2019, bringing inflation close to the Reserve Bank of India’s lower tolerance threshold of 2% under its inflation-targeting framework. Food inflation—which accounts for nearly half of the CPI basket—fell sharply to 0.99%, the lowest level since October 2021, driven by easing price pressures in pulses and products, vegetables, fruits, cereals, sugar and confectionery, and eggs. Meanwhile, fuel and light inflation also moderated (2.78% vs. 2.92% in April). In contrast, inflation remained steady or edged higher in categories such as housing (3.16% vs. 3.06%), education (4.12% vs. 4.13%), health (4.34% vs. 4.25%), and transport and communication (3.85% vs. 3.67%).

USDCAD decreased to a 35-week low of 1.36. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Canadian Dollar lost 2.16%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.79%.

EURUSD increased to a 3-1/2-year high of 1.16. Over the past 4 weeks, Euro US Dollar gained 3.58%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.9%.

The annual inflation rate in Serbia eased to 3.8% in May 2025, the lowest in eleven months, from 4.0% in April and below market forecasts of 3.9%. The slowdown was attributed to moderated prices for furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (4.9% vs 5.3% in April), housing and utilities (3.3% vs 3.7%), recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3.8%), restaurants and hotels (7.8% vs 8.1%), and miscellaneous goods and services (3.4% vs 3.9%). In addition, prices continued to decline for transport (-3.4% vs -1.7%), dragged down by a 9.3% plunge in prices for fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment. On the other hand, prices rose for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.7% vs 5%) and communication (2% vs 1.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices ticked lower to 0.2% from a 0.3% gain in the previous month.

Mining production in South Africa slipped by 7.7% over a year ago in April 2025, following a revised 2.5% decline in the prior month and more than an expected 4.3% drop. The latest reading pointed to the sixth consecutive month of downturn in the country's sector, and at a solid pace, led by PGMs (-24.1% vs -9.9% in March), nickel (-21.9% vs -0.3%) and copper (-9.5% vs 3.2%). Output also decreased for building materials (-6.1% vs -1-1%); other non-metallic minerals (-5.2% vs 8.9%); gold (-2.5% vs -11.1%) and coal (-1.7% vs 1.2%). Conversely, the biggest increases were seen for other metallic minerals (16.5% vs 4.4%); diamonds (10.1% vs 1.4%) and iron ore (5.3% vs 7.5%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, mining output rose by 0.6% in April, after an upwardly revised 3.6% advance in the prior month. Mining production shrank by 2.7% in the three months ended April 2025 compared with the previous three months.

Manufacturing production in Hong Kong grew by 0.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, easing from a 1.0% gain in the previous period. Output growth slowed in metal, computer, electronics, and optical products, machinery, and equipment (2.4% vs 3.3% in Q4 2024) and miscellaneous manufacturing industries (0.7% vs 2.9%). Meanwhile, production rebounded in textiles and wearing apparel (0.8% vs -0.8%), paper products, printing, and reproduction of recorded media (2.9% vs -2.9%). In addition, output also returned to growth in sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (1.8% vs -0.7%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, manufacturing output contracted 0.5% in Q1 2025, reversing a 1.2% expansion in Q4 2024

The annual inflation rate in Montenegro rose to 3.9% in May 2025 from 3.4% in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since June 2024, mainly due to higher prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (4.2% vs 2.8% in April), housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (6.1% vs 5.9%), health (13.5% vs 13.2%), restaurants & hotels (10.1% vs 9.5%), recreation & culture (7.0% vs 6.7%), and furnishings, household equipment & equipment & routine household maintenance (5.8% vs 5.3%). In addition, inflation remained unchanged for education (0.9%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for communication (1.7% vs 1.8%), and deflation worsened for both transport (-3.2% vs -2.5%) and clothing & footwear (-1.8% vs -1.4). On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged down to 0.6% in May from 0.8% in the preceding month.

The annual inflation rate in Angola continued to decelerate to reach 20.74% in May 2025, the lowest since December 2023, easing from 22.32% in the prior month. The stabilization of the kwanza has helped contain imported inflation, while elevated interest rates and improved availability of consumer goods have supported a sustained disinflationary trend since July 2024. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up by 1.17% in May, marking the slowest increase since May 2023, after a 1.34% rise in the previous month. Price growth moderated for almost all CPI items, primarily alcoholic beverages & tobacco (1.28% vs 1.94% in April); clothing & footwear (1.24% vs 1.80%); hotels, cafes & restaurants (0.81% vs 1.65%); recreation & culture (0.84% vs 1.20%) and food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.25% vs 1.43%).

The yield on the German 10-year Bund edged down toward 2.5%, approaching its lowest level since May 7, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and renewed trade war concerns. US President Donald Trump said American personnel were being relocated from the region, warning it "could be a dangerous place." At the same time, he announced plans to send letters to key trading partners in the coming weeks outlining new unilateral tariff rates. Meanwhile, in the US, softer-than-expected inflation data and signs of a gradually cooling labor market bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as September. In Europe, remarks from ECB officials have strengthened speculation that the central bank may soon pause its easing cycle, adopting a wait-and-see stance to assess the economic impact of potential US tariffs.

Top currency gainers are South Korean Won (1.23%), Swiss Franc (0.74%), Swedish Krona (0.69%), Euro (0.49%), British Pound (0.18%) and Japanese Yen (0.53%). Biggest losers are Dollar Index (-0.44%) and Turkish Lira (-0.41%).

USDKRW decreased to a 34-week low of 1351.00. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar South Korean Won lost 4.46%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.61%.