Forex News

The Argentine peso weakened past 1,450 per US dollar and slid back toward its record low of 1,475 from September 19th after a brief recovery as political and policy uncertainty ahead of the October 26th midterms collided with doubts over the size and immediacy of US support, triggering heavy FX outflows, a repricing of devaluation risk and a rush into forward protection. Markets initially cheered talk of a $20 billion swap framework but the deal’s opaque timing and activation conditions, mixed public comments from Washington and a high-profile warning that US help could be contingent on the election outcome undermined that confidence. Even after limited Treasury peso purchases, the official exchange rate and short-dated forwards moved sharply lower, reflecting banks’ and corporates’ hedging and funding stress. Against a fragile reserve position and large near-term external obligations, traders have instead priced a higher chance of a post-election policy shift.

US stocks were sharply higher on Monday amid on optimism over incoming earnings reports and fresh support from banks, while markets continued to assess the outlook of fewer trade barriers between the US and China. The S&P 500 and the Dow jumped close to 1% each, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 1.5% increase to set up a record-high close. Wells Fargo and Citi advanced nearly 3% each and other major lenders were firmly higher as investors reconsidered credit stress and the outlook of bad loans in the US, trimming their pressure since the start of the month. In the meantime, Apple surged 4.5% to a fresh high on signals of strong iPhone 17 sales in the US and China. Sentiment was also supported by President Trump's signal of de-escalation on trade tensions with China ahead of a new round of talks in Malaysia, and a WSJ report noted that Trump exempted dozens of products from reciprocal tariffs. Tesla was 1% higher ahead of its results this week.

The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.4 per US dollar, rebounding further from the two-month low of R$5.52 on October 10th driven primarily by an easing of the US–China trade risk premium, alongside a broadly subdued dollar and firmer external demand that improve near-term export prospects. Markets have repriced a lower tariff tail risk after signs of a thaw in bilateral rhetoric and preparatory talks, reducing the likelihood of large trade shocks to commodity flows that underpin Brazil’s current account. At the same time the dollar has stayed subdued amid the US government shutdown and rising odds of Fed rate cuts, trimming dollar funding costs and encouraging cross-border flows into higher-yielding Brazil. Elevated real interest rates relative to peers preserve carry appeal, while stronger Chinese activity and firmer commodity prices bolster expected export receipts.

Gold prices surged more than 2% on Monday, trading above $4,345 per ounce, a new record high, as expectations of further Fed interest rate cuts and ongoing safe-haven demand continued to support bullion. The US government shutdown remains in effect, and although White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC that is “likely to end sometime this week” uncertainty persists. Investors are also closely watching upcoming US-China talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to meet in Malaysia this week to resume discussions following last week’s flare-up in trade tensions. President Trump expressed optimism that the negotiations could yield an agreement and described his previously threatened high tariffs on Chinese goods as “unsustainable”. So far this year, bullion has surged more than 60%.

The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% on Monday, rebounding from last week’s losses amid a global market recovery. Defence stocks led gains after renewed geopolitical tensions. Babcock climbed 2.5%, Rolls-Royce 2.4%, and BAE Systems 1.8%, as reports of a tense meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled no progress toward peace in Ukraine, while fighting reignited in Gaza, boosting demand for military-related shares. Banking stocks also advanced as concerns over US regional lenders eased, with HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, and NatWest up between 0.5% and 1.3%. Commodity-linked shares gained too, with Fresnillo up over 2.5%, Anglo American and Rio Tinto rising more than 1.5%, and Shell up nearly 0.8%. Offsetting gains, B&M shares crashed 22% to a record low after a second profit warning this month, citing cost overruns, weak execution, and the resignation of its finance chief.

The STOXX 50 surged 1.4% to close at a record high of 5,688 on Monday, while the broader STOXX 600 rose 1.1% to 572 amid easing concerns over US banking stability and signs of reduced trade tensions between Washington and Beijing after President Trump indicated he could lower tariffs if China resumed US soybean purchases. Financial stocks saw notable gains, with BBVA up 3.9%, UniCredit 3%, and Intesa Sanpaolo 2.8%. In contrast, BNP Paribas plunged 7.7% after a US jury ordered it to pay $20.75 million over alleged ties to Sudanese atrocities. The defense sector also posted strong performance amid renewed geopolitical instability. Rheinmetall gained 6.1% as fighting intensified in Gaza and the war in Ukraine showed no signs of resolution. In the consumer sector, L'Oréal climbed 1% after striking a €4 billion deal to acquire Kering’s beauty division, strengthening its position in the luxury cosmetics market.

Top currency gainers are Brazilian Real (0.64%), New Zealand Dollar (0.39%), Swedish Krona (0.33%) and Dollar Index (0.09%). Biggest losers are British Pound (-0.08%).

Germany’s DAX strengthened further, closing 1.8% higher at 24,291 on Monday, with the defense sector at the forefront of broad-based market gains. Hensoldt (+6.9%), Rheinmetall (5.9%) and Renk (+5.6%) advanced solidly after Ukrainian President Zelensky reportedly endured a hostile US meeting and failed to secure Tomahawk missiles, leaving Europe as his only option for rearmament. European leaders are set to hold a summit on Thursday in Brussels, potentially with Zelensky, to discuss using frozen Russian assets for a €140 billion loan to Ukraine. At the same time, the ceasefire in Gaza remains fragile. Market sentiment was further boosted by easing concerns over the US banking sector and Trump's softer tone on China, with a new round of trade talks scheduled for this week in Malaysia. Tech stocks also saw strong gains, led by Infineon Technologies (+5.1%), SAP (+3.3%), and Siemens (+2.2%).

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was around 4% on Monday, closer to September 2024 lows, as traders braced for the delayed September CPI report, scheduled for Friday, the first key government data release since the government shutdown began nearly four weeks ago. Some hope of a resolution is emerging after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett suggested the shutdown is “likely to end sometime this week”. Investor sentiment was also supported by signs of easing US–China trade tensions, following President Trump’s efforts to de-escalate ahead of a new round of talks in Malaysia. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that Trump has exempted dozens of products from reciprocal tariffs. On the monetary policy front, the odds of a 25 basis-point cut in the federal funds rate next week currently stand at around 99%.

Thermo Fisher Scientific shares increased to 549.46 USD, the highest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Thermo Fisher Scientific gained 15.54%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 7.78%.

US heating oil futures rose to $2.19 per gallon, rebounding from a four-month low of $2.15 on October 16th, driven by a sharp draw in distillate inventories and the onset of winter demand even as crude feedstock costs remained weak. The Energy Information Administration reported distillate fuel oil stocks fell 4.53 million barrels in the week ended October 10th, after a 2.02 million-barrel draw the prior week, leaving inventories about 7% below the five-year average. At the same time refinery runs slipped to roughly 85.7% of capacity, constraining product output. Meanwhile, meteorologists revised their two-week outlook toward cooler conditions through early November, lifting expectations for higher heating demand. With visible supply tightening in heating fuels just as seasonal demand ramps and export appetite for distillates remains robust, the distillate complex has outperformed most other oil benchmarks.

Boston Scientific shares increased to 100.59 USD, the highest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Boston Scientific gained 2.36%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 14.21%.

Apple shares increased to an all-time high of 260.06 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Apple gained 1.33%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 9.76%.

EU50 increased to an all-time high of 5676.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, Euro Area Stock Market Index (EU50) gained 4.31%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 14.88%.

Lithium carbonate prices were at CNY 74,000 per tonne, holding most of the decline from the one-year high of CNY 87,100 from August as markets assessed the outlook of supply controls from the Chinese government against demand for electric vehicles. Chinese authorities approved reportedly approved reserve reports for the restart of activity in CATL's Jiangxi mine. The reopening reports countered the surge in lithium prices after CATL was unable to extend mining permits in the hub, which is responsible for around 3% of global supply. Besides the direct increase in supply from operations in Jiangxi, the event limited the magnitude of supply cuts that the Chinese government was willing to pass to counter deflationary pressures in its fresh capacity-cutting overhaul. Still, prices were off lows as firm demand for electric vehicles limited the supply glut for batteries. This was lastly evidenced by Beijing unveiling a plan to double EV charging capacity by 2027.

The Ibovespa inched higher to 144,000 on Monday, benefiting from a positive momentum for global equities as markets assessed corporate news. Fleury (-4.4%) said talks with Rede D’Or (+0.5%) remain ongoing, denying reports of suspension. Citi estimates R$10 billion could become available to Rede D’Or after its merger with Fleury. Braskem (+1.6%) said Camex approved keeping the 20% import tariff on PE, PP, and PVC resins until October 2026. Citi expects solid results from Eztec (+2.8%) but warned about inventory composition; net sales hit R$532 million, 54% from Q3 launches. Vale gained 0.3%, Petrobras fell 0.3% with oil prices. Priner (+0.3%) completed the purchase of 60% of SEMEP. Most utilities rose (Eletrobras +0.3%, SABESP +1%), as did major banks (Itaú +0.7%, Bradesco +0.8%).

The S&P/TSX Composite rose around 1% to above the 30,350 mark on Monday, powered by gains in commodity producers, tech and financials after President Trump moved to de-escalate trade tensions with China ahead of a new round of talks in Malaysia. At the same time, hopes the long-running US government shutdown could end this week, after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said a resolution was likely, added to risk appetite. Mega-cap Shopify led tech, rising more than 3%, while miners benefited as gold rebounded toward record highs, Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, Barrick and Franco-Nevada advanced roughly 1.1%–2%. Financials and energy names also traded firmly in the green, rounding out a broad-based lift for the market.

Apple shares increased to 259.47 USD, the highest since December 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Apple gained 1.05%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 9.47%.

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, remained steady at 2,069 points on Monday, as minimal increases in the larger vessel segments were offset by weakness in the smallest one. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rose by 0.2% to a one-week high of 3,128 points; and the the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, increased two points to 1,829 points, extending gains for the tenth day. On the other hand, the supramax index fell six points to 1,422 points.

US stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1%, the Nasdaq up 1.4%, and the Dow Jones climbing more than 370 points. Investors are preparing for a busy week of earnings, including Tesla, and the long-delayed CPI report, due Friday. Apple shares surged over 4% to an all-time high of $260.06 after a report showed iPhone 17 sales off to a strong start in the US and China. Optimism also grew that the government shutdown could soon end, after White House economic adviser Hassett told it is “likely to end sometime this week.” Meanwhile, concerns over regional banks, which triggered last week’s sell-off, eased following strong results from several lenders. Investor sentiment was further supported after President Trump moved to de-escalate trade tensions with China ahead of a new round of talks in Malaysia, and a WSJ report noted that Trump exempted dozens of products from reciprocal tariffs. Tech and communication services were the top-performing sectors, while consumer staples lagged.