Forex News

The Ibovespa rose 0.2% to close at 136,512 on Friday, its highest level since August, securing a 1% weekly gain for the São Paulo exchange and marking its fifth consecutive week of gains. The rally came as investors digested domestic inflation data and global optimism over trade negotiations fueled broader risk appetite. Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 5.53% in April, the highest since February 2023, remaining above the Central Bank’s 4.5% upper target for the sixth straight month. Meanwhile, global trade concerns eased as senior US and Chinese officials prepared for talks in Switzerland, while a US–UK trade agreement signed Thursday signaled a de-escalation in tariff tensions, improving sentiment toward Brazil’s export outlook. In corporate news, Itaúsa jumped 4.5% after posting strong Q1 results, leading gains. In contrast, Suzano (-2.7%), Banco Bradesco (-1.3%), and Localiza (-6.4%) fell following disappointing earnings.

US stocks closed near the flatline on Friday as investors looked ahead to high-stakes trade negotiations between the US and China in Geneva this weekend. The S&P 500 edged lower by 0.1%, the Dow Jones fell 119 points, while the Nasdaq 100 finished mostly flat. A brief boost in sentiment followed the announcement of a US-UK trade agreement, but uncertainty lingered over whether talks with China would yield meaningful progress. Adding to the cautious mood, President Trump floated the idea of reducing tariffs on Chinese imports to 80% from the current 145%, while claiming that “many trade deals” are underway. On the earnings front, Pinterest jumped 4.8% on strong ad revenue forecasts, while Expedia slid 7.3% after missing revenue expectations, and Affirm sank 14.5% on weak fourth-quarter guidance. The mixed corporate results underscored broader investor wariness amid trade headwinds. The S&P 500 ended the week down 0.7%, while the Nasdaq lost around 0.6%. The Dow slipped roughly 0.2%.

Merck decreased to a 3-year low of 75.93 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Merck & Co lost 1.87%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 41.58%.

WTI crude oil futures rose 1.8% to settle at $61 per barrel on Friday, marking a weekly gain of over 4% as easing trade tensions between the US and China lifted market sentiment. Optimism was fueled by news that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet China’s Vice Premier in Switzerland on May 10, signaling possible progress in resolving trade disputes. Adding to the positive momentum, Chinese exports exceeded expectations in April, while crude oil imports rose 7.5% year-over-year, driven by stockpiling during refinery maintenance. A separate US-UK trade agreement further improved the global trade outlook. Despite these bullish factors, caution persists as OPEC+ plans to ramp up production, potentially weighing on prices. Additionally, tighter US sanctions on Iran may restrict supply, injecting fresh uncertainty into the market.

Bitcoin and Ether are on the rise. Ether is leading the charge with a 5.84% gain.

Top commodity losers are Orange Juice (-6.14%), Cheese (-5.42%) and Wheat (-1.70%). Gains are led by Sugar (1.82%), Canola (1.48%) and Palm Oil (1.47%).

Top commodity gainers are Platinum (2.38%), Copper (1.30%), Silver (1.09%) and Gold (0.69%). Biggest losers are Iron Ore CNY (-0.64%) and Steel Rebar (-0.62%).

Top commodity gainers are Natural gas (5.23%), Crude Oil WTI (1.80%) and Brent Crude Oil (1.62%). Biggest losers are Natural Gas UK GBP (-3.17%) and Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (-2.66%).

Stocks in the US traded lower Friday afternoon as investors grew cautious ahead of high-stakes US-China trade talks set for this weekend in Geneva. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each dipped 0.1%, while the Dow Jones fell over 50 points, giving up earlier gains. Sentiment briefly improved following the announcement of a US-UK trade agreement, but concerns remain that talks with China may fall short of a breakthrough. President Trump added to market uncertainty by floating an 80% tariff on Chinese imports—down from the current 145%—while also claiming that “many trade deals” are underway. On the corporate front, Pinterest rallied 5.4% on strong ad revenue projections, while Expedia fell 7.7% after missing revenue estimates, and Affirm dropped 13% on weak Q4 guidance. These mixed earnings signals reflect broader investor uncertainty amid trade tensions. For the week, the S&P 500 is down 0.7%, with the Nasdaq and Dow also on track for modest losses.

European stocks closed firmly higher on Friday as the possibility that the US and China will de-escalate their trade war with talks this weekend supported risk-on assets. The STOXX 50 added 0.4% to 5,310 and the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.4% to 548. On the policy front, ECB official Olli Rehn stated that the central bank should consider cutting interest rates in the upcoming meeting provided that upcoming forecasts confirm a continued disinflation trend and weakening growth momentum. Consumer discretionary companies and utility providers led the gains after lagging behind in the previous session, with LVMH, BMW, L'Oreal, and Enel all adding more than 2%. Banks were also higher as investors assessed the likelihood of a third Italian lending giant. Mediobanca jumped after beating its Q1 results forecast and signaling the continuation in its bid for Banca Generali, while Banca MPS also gained after delivering strong results and voicing its effort to acquire Mediobanca.

Market attention will continue on US trade negotiations, followed by key data including inflation rate, retail sales, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, notably Chair Powell. Investors will also closely monitor producer prices, industrial production, Michigan consumer sentiment, export and import prices, as well as building permits and housing starts. The earnings season remains in focus, with major reports expected from Cisco, Tencent, Alibaba, SoftBank, Walmart, and Target. Globally, inflation data will be released for India and Russia. In the UK, key releases include Q1 GDP growth, jobless rate, goods trade balance, and industrial production. China is set to report credit data, industrial production, retail sales and house prices. Germany will publish ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, while South Korea and Australia report unemployment figures. Q1 GDP growth rate is expected from Japan, while foreign trade data will be in the spotlight for India, the Euro Area, and Italy.

Frankfurt’s DAX advanced 0.7% on Friday, breaking above 23,500 to reach a new all-time high, extending Thursday’s gains and aligning with broader global market momentum. The advance was driven by the finalized US-UK trade agreement, which has strengthened expectations for progress on a broader US-EU deal. Market attention now turns to the upcoming US-China negotiations, with traders also closely watching corporate earnings. Siemens Energy, Daimler Truck, Bayer, Merck, BMW, Infineon and Brenntag led the gains, adding between 1.7% and 2.7%. Shares of Commerzbank gained ground, surging nearly 4%, after the lender posted a surprise profit growth in Q1. For the week, the index rose nearly 2%, driven by optimism surrounding Germany's economic prospects under the newly formed government and signs of easing global trade tensions.

The yield on 10-year Brazilian government bonds fell to around 13.9% in May, a five-month low, as monetary policy signals, solid external balances, and easing trade-war risks reduced the term premium demanded by investors. April inflation came in at 5.53% year-on-year, broadly in line with forecasts, reinforcing the central bank’s view that its recent 50bps Selic hike to 14.75% may mark the peak of the tightening cycle and paving the way for cuts later this year. Externally, the Fed’s decision to hold US rates at 4.25–4.50%—while signaling stabilizing inflation—helped temper Treasury yields, narrowing the Brazil–US yield spread and drawing carry-trade inflows. Meanwhile, upcoming US–China talks in Switzerland and a new US–UK trade pact eased tariff concerns around Brazil’s commodity exports. A robust $8.2 billion April trade surplus and a 3.1% annual rise in industrial output further underscored external strength, boosting demand for Brazilian debt and pushing long yields lower.

The Canadian dollar slipped past 1.39 per US dollar, easing from its strongest levels since October of 1.378 seen May 6th, as a combination of underwhelming labour-market signals, shifting central-bank expectations and lingering trade frictions weighed on the loonie. While April's employment report showed a net gain of 7,400 jobs—surpassing forecasts—the unemployment rate rose to 6.9%, its highest since November, underlining vulnerability in tariff-exposed manufacturing. With market odds now pointing to better than even chances of a June rate cut after the BoC’s Financial System Review flagged elevated household debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in bond auctions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at 4.25–4.50% and its cautionary stance on persistent inflation and labour-market risks have driven US assets higher. Additionally, President Trump’s announcement of a US–UK trade pact and hints of reduced tariffs on Chinese imports have bolstered the USD.

Top currency losers are Turkish Lira (-1.08%) and Dollar Index (-0.37%). Gains are led by Indian Rupee (0.82%), Polish Zloty (0.80%), Norwegian Krone (0.76%), British Pound (0.45%), Euro (0.39%) and Japanese Yen (0.62%).

The Ibovespa climbed around 0.4% to above the 137,000 mark on Friday, its highest level since August, setting up the São Paulo exchange for a weekly gain of roughly 1.3%. Gains came as investors digested domestic inflation data and global optimism over trade talks bolstered risk appetite. Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 5.53% in April, the highest since February 2023, and remained above the central bank’s 4.5% upper target for the sixth straight month—just after Copom’s recent 50 bps Selic hike. Meanwhile, concerns over global trade eased as senior US and Chinese officials prepared to meet in Switzerland, and a US–UK trade agreement signed Thursday pointed to easing tariff tensions, lifting sentiment around exports. In corporate news, Itaúsa surged over 4% after reporting its first-quarter results, leading gains across major financial stocks. On the other hand, Suzano, Banco Bradesco, and Localiza each dropped around 2% following their own lackluster earnings releases.

Mexico's car exports decreased by 10.9% year-on-year to 256,953 units in April 2025, after a 3.8% rise in the prior month as new US tariffs reduced the shipments to the United States. Among the main exporters, Mazda (-60.9% to 5,226), Volkswagen (-44.4% to 19,130), Mercedes-Benz (-43.9% to 4,292), Stellantis (Chrysler and Fiat) (-36.9% to 16,413), Audi (-33.7% to 8,567), and BMW (-32.6% to 5,496) saw the largest declines. Of the twelve brands surveyed, only Toyota (+36.4% to 28,542), General Motors (+8.8% to 76,443), and Ford Motor (+1% to 31,914) reported growth in exports. Year-to-date, car exports are down 7.3%.

Mexico's car production fell by 9.1% year-on-year to 326,069 units in April 2025, following a 12.1% increase in March. This marks the steepest annual decline since March 2024. Among major brands, Stellantis (Chrysler and Fiat) registered the sharpest drop (-46.7% to 21,069), followed by BMW (-27.1% to 5,282), Volkswagen (-18.8% to 29,235), General Motors (-11.6% to 72,562), and Nissan (-10% to 50,289). Output also declined for Audi (-8.7% to 14,002), KIA (-3.9% to 23,250), and Mercedes-Benz (-0.9% to 4,700). In contrast, Honda (+27.8% to 17,429), Toyota (+27% to 27,256), and Ford Motor (+0.3% to 38,505) reported production growth. Considering the first four months of 2025, car production rose by 0.94%.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.4% to close at 25,360 on Friday, securing the Toronto exchange a weekly gain of 1.3% as higher commodity prices buoyed the resource-heavy benchmark. Energy leaders drove the advance, with Canadian Natural, Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus each gaining between 1.7% and 3.8%, while heavyweight miners such as Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, Barrick Gold, and Franco-Nevada also outperformed rising between 2.4% and 4%. On the economic front, Statistics Canada reported 7,400 new jobs in April alongside a modest uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, suggesting consumer spending capacity remains intact despite job losses in manufacturing, pressured by US import tariffs. Internationally, market sentiment was lifted by President Trump’s announcement of a US–UK trade agreement and signals of potential tariff reductions on Chinese imports ahead of weekend negotiations, easing trade concerns and boosting markets across North America and Asia.

The three major averages in the US fluctuated between modest gains and losses on Friday, after a slightly stronger open, as traders assessed signs of a potential de-escalation in global trade tension. President Trump said an 80% tariff on China "seems right" ahead of trade talks led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this weekend. Earlier reports had suggested the tariff rate could be reduced to below 60%. Communication services, industrials and consumer discretionary underperformed. Corporate earnings also remained in focus. Shares of Pinterest surged over 7% after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and user growth. Lyft jumped nearly 17% following a strong report on gross bookings, while Coinbase slipped about 1.2% after posting a decline in profit. For the week, the S&P 500 is down 0.4%, the Nasdaq has fallen 0.3%, and the Dow Jones has edged up a modest 0.1%.