Forex News

The Ibovespa climbed 1% to close at 137,114 on Thursday, outpacing most global peers after Congress voted to rescind the IOF tax increase, removing a major headwind for equities and the real that had prompted central bank interventions in foreign-exchange markets and added to fiscal strain. At the same time, mid-June headline inflation eased to 5.27% year-on-year—below the 5.31% forecast—dimming worries that the central bank would keep its terminal Selic rate of 15% in place longer than expected. Vale jumped 3% on reports of stronger iron ore shipments to China, while Petrobras advanced 0.7% after securing 17.5 million barrels of pre-salt oil at auction. Heavyweights WEG, Rede D'Or, and B3 were among top performers adding between 1.9% and 3.6%, as broad risk-on flows permeated the market.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.7% to close at 26,752 on Thursday, reaching a new record high driven by a broad resurgence in resource and interest-rate-sensitive sectors amid dovish global monetary cues and firmer commodity prices. Base-metal miners led the advance as Teck Resources and First Quantum each added between 7.9% and 7.5%, respectively after copper prices climbed to three-month highs on US tariff concerns and hopes for Chinese stimulus, while energy names such as Cenovus and Canadian Natural rallied alongside a modest rebound in crude oil. Heavyweight financials also traded strongly, reflecting wider rate-differential expectations. Conversely, technology bellwether Shopify fell 1.3%, tempering the overall market’s gains.

US stocks rallied on Thursday, fueled by easing geopolitical tensions, strong performance from tech giants, and growing expectations of interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% after briefly touching a new all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 extended its record streak with a 1% gain. The Dow Jones also advanced by 404 points as optimism grew after the White House downplayed upcoming tariff deadlines, calming investor concerns about a trade war. At the same time, talk of President Trump naming a new Fed chair earlier than expected fueled speculation about a shift toward looser monetary policy. Meanwhile, fresh economic data showed the US economy contracted more than anticipated in Q1 by an annualized 0.5% and the goods deficit unexpectedly widened due to lower exports. Most tech giants such as Amazon (+2.4%) Alphabet (+1.7%) and Meta (+2.4%) led the gains, while Apple bucked the trend, slipping 0.3% following a price target downgrade by JPMorgan Chase.

US2000 increased to a 16-week high of 2171.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, United States Stock Market Index (US2000) gained 3.79%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.45%.

The Bank of Mexico lowered its key rate by 50 bps to 8.00% on June 26th, as annual inflation increased to 4.51% by mid-June and the domestic economy expanded moderately in April, though slack persists. The release indicated that the Board could continue calibrating similar 50 bps cuts, anticipating that the disinflation process will allow a further easing cycle while maintaining a restrictive stance. However, the central bank remains cautious amid elevated global uncertainty—ranging from trade tensions to geopolitical conflicts—that could reignite inflation via peso depreciation or deepen the economic slowdown. While progress toward the 3% inflation target is on track, with forecasts pointing to convergence by the third quarter of 2026, members underscored the importance of a flexible policy framework to manage inflation expectations and preserve financial stability, particularly given the peso’s recent appreciation.

US stocks surged on Thursday, with the S&P 500 reaching all-time high and Nasdaq 100 topping its previous session's record closes, driven by easing geopolitical tensions, strong tech performance, and rising hopes for interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, while the Nasdaq added 1% and the Dow advanced 390 points. Optimism grew after the White House downplayed upcoming tariff deadlines, calming investor concerns about a trade war. At the same time, talk of President Trump naming a new Fed chair earlier than expected fueled speculation about a shift toward looser monetary policy. Meanwhile, fresh economic data showed the US economy contracted more than anticipated in Q1 by an annualized 0.5% and the goods deficit unexpectedly widened due to lower exports. Most tech giants such as Nvidia and Meta led the gains, continuing their strong upward momentum, while Apple bucked the trend, slipping 0.4% following a price target downgrade by JPMorgan Chase.

Top commodity losers are Orange Juice (-3.40%), Sugar (-2.41%) and Rice (-1.71%). Gains are led by Cotton (3.18%), Cocoa (3.02%) and Oat (1.71%).

Top commodity gainers are Platinum (5%), Copper (2.76%) and Silver (1.02%).

Top commodity losers are Natural Gas UK GBP (-6.01%), Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (-5.48%), Natural gas (-2.23%) and Brent Crude Oil (-0.26%). Gains are led by Heating Oil (1.60%), Methanol (0.86%), Gasoline (0.61%) and Crude Oil WTI (0.15%).

Citigroup increased to a 16-1/2-year high of 84.77 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Citigroup gained 12.33%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 37.83%.

Union Pacific increased to a 5-week high of 229.26 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Union Pacific gained 2.22%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 2.58%.

US gasoline futures rebounded to about $2.11 per gallon after sliding below $2.10 yesterday on news of a US-brokered Israel–Iran ceasefire that eased worries over Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Latest EIA figures reveal a 2.075 million-barrel draw in US gasoline stocks for the week ending June 20th, the largest since last November, while refinery output ticked down, tightening supply. At the same time, US crude inventories tumbled by 5.84 million barrels, bolstering feedstock costs. Although the ceasefire has held, sporadic tensions and Iran’s threat to suspend cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog continue to limit downturns. A softer dollar amid growing Fed rate-cut expectations has further lent support by lowering the relative cost of refined products in global markets.

DXY decreased to a 3-year low of 97.00. Over the past 4 weeks, Dollar Index lost 2.52%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 8.39%.

European stocks were mixed on Thursday, holding the losses from the previous session as markets continued to assess the fiscal and monetary policy outlook for the EU's largest economies. The STOXX 50 inched 0.2% lower to 5,244, while the pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.1% to 538. Defense companies extended yesterday's gains as investors continued to gauge their increase in return after NATO countries agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales, and Airbus soared between 7% and 2.7%. In the meantime, miners traded in London and Switzerland advanced amid the strong session for base and ferrous metals, with Rio Tinto, Glencore, and Anglo American advancing around 5% each. In turn, tech closed lower after ASML was downgraded by analysts, pressuring its shares to a 2.5% loss. On the data front, the Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator edged down slightly in July.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage backed by Freddie Mac fell by 4 bps from the previous week to 6.77% as of June 26th, easing further from its highest level in nearly four months seen four weeks ago. “Borrowers should find comfort in the stability of mortgage rates, which have only fluctuated within a narrow 15-basis point range since mid-April. Although recent data show that home sales remain low, the resulting available inventory provides homebuyers with a wider range of options to consider when entering the market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production Index rose to 5 in June 2026 from -10 in May, the highest level since August 2023, signaling a rebound in factory activity. The improvement was driven by stronger output in nonmetallic mineral and petroleum product manufacturing, partially offsetting ongoing weakness in metals and transportation equipment. Production and shipments ticked up modestly, while new orders and employment declined. Backlogs continued to shrink, reflecting persistent demand softness. In turn, price pressures intensified, particularly for raw materials, forcing manufacturers to increase their selling charges. Despite subdued current conditions, the future composite index rose to 9 from 5, as firms anticipate a pickup in production and orders over the next six months.

The FTSE 100 rose slightly on Thursday, supported by gains in commodity-linked stocks as metal and oil prices climbed. Miners led the rally, with Anglo American up 7% and Antofagasta up 5.6% as copper prices hit a three-month high. Glencore and Rio Tinto also gained 5% and 3.5%, respectively. Oil giants Shell and BP rose 0.7% and 1.6%, helped by rising crude prices. Meanwhile, Shell denied any immediate plans to acquire BP, following speculation of takeover talks. Gold miners Fresnillo and Endeavour also climbed. Defense stock BAE Systems gained over 3.5% amid optimism surrounding NATO’s decision to raise its defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035. Meanwhile, exporters like Unilever and British American Tobacco fell more than 2% each, hurt by the stronger pound, which reached its highest level since October 2021. Investors continued to monitor the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which helped ease geopolitical tensions.

The Brazilian real firmed to 5.50 per USD, approaching its strongest level in eight months of 5.491 on June 19, as a softer dollar and robust domestic factors converged. Congress’s repeal of the IOF on portfolio flows eliminated a tax that had made foreign investment more expensive and widened demand for reais. Meanwhile, June’s mid-month inflation showed headline inflation at 5.27 %, under the 5.31 % consensus, confirming that price pressures are subsiding and cementing market bets that the Selic rate will remain at its current restrictive setting rather than climb. On the external front, the US economy’s surprise 0.5 % contraction in Q1 and Fed testimony stressing patience drove the dollar index down to its lowest since early 2022, spotlighting Brazil’s high real-rate differential. Strong inflows from pre-salt oil auctions and a rebound in agricultural exports have added to the real’s momentum.

US natural gas futures fell toward $3.42/MMBtu, the lowest in five weeks, pressured by rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build. According to the EIA, US utilities added 96 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ending June 20, marking the 10th consecutive week of above-average injections. Average output in the Lower 48 states increased to 105.5 bcfd in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, supporting ample supply. Despite forecasts for continued hotter-than-normal weather over the next two weeks, temperatures are expected to ease from this week’s peak heat. Additionally, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export terminals have declined to 14.1 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May.

Top currency gainers are Brazilian Real (1.03%), Canadian Dollar (0.55%), Swiss Franc (0.49%), British Pound (0.32%), Euro (0.21%) and Japanese Yen (0.36%). Biggest losers are Dollar Index (-0.44%) and Swedish Krona (-0.37%).