EUR/USD keeps red around 1.0620 after German ZEW
The EUR/USD pair maintained softer tone, but remained above 1.0600 handle, following the release of German ZEW confidence survey.Currently trading around 1.0620 region, the pair failed to gain any traction after German ZEW Economic Sentiment index fell short of consensus estimates and came-in at 13.8 for December. Consensus estimates were anticipating a reading of 14.0 as compared to November’s 13.8. The negative impact, however, got negated by current situation index, which unexpectedly rose to 63.5 versus 59.1 expected and 58.8 recorded in the previous month.Meanwhile, the greenback, as measured by the overall US Dollar Index, was also seen to recover some of its yesterday's sharp slide, amid expectations that US interest rates would rise at the much-awaited FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and might have also contributed towards restricting any fresh buying interest.Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes, "As for the technical picture, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is turning lower, hovering around a flat 100 SMA and a bearish 20 SMA, as technical indicators turn lower around neutral territory, reflecting the absence of directional strength. Should the price accelerate its slide through 1.0590, the decline can extend down to 1.0550, en route to the 1.0505/20 region. Above 1.0651, the weekly high, the pair can recover up to 1.0700, where selling interest will likely contain the advance."
GBP/USD gains appear limited around 1.2270 UOB
Cable remains under pressure, while further upside beyond 1.2770 seems unlikely in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.“While we noted the patchy downward momentum and were of the view that any GBP weakness is likely to be limited, the strong recovery from the low of 1.2567 was unexpected. From here, a move above the overnight high of 1.2700 would not be surprising but any further extension is not expected to threaten the 1.2775 high seen last week (minor resistance at 1.2730)”.“GBP continue to trade in a choppy manner and there is no change to the current neutral view for this pair. Improved short-term upward momentum could lead to a move above the expected consolidation range of 1.2480/1.2750 but 1.2775 is another major resistance and this level is unlikely to yield so easily”.
USD/JPY reverses Monday’s corrective slide
After an initial dip to sub-115.00 mark, the USD/JPY pair gained fresh traction and has now reversed its Monday’s entire minor profit taking slide.Currently trading around 115.40-45 band, testing session peak, the prevalent risk-on mood is driving investors away from traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen, and is assisting the pair to maintain its bid tone closer to Monday's 10 month peak beyond 116.00 handle. In absence of any major market moving releases on Tuesday, investors will remain focused on a slew of important US macro data on Wednesday, including monthly retail sales data and PPI print, ahead of the much anticipated Fed monetary policy decision. From technical perspective, the pair has now remained in near-term overbought territory for an extended period of time. However, any corrective slide has been short-lived, possibly suggesting excessive speculative positions in anticipation of a faster Fed rate-tightening cycle in 2017. Hence, any negative shock from the Fed would trigger a sharp corrective slide in the near-term.The bearish price-RSI divergence coupled with the bearish MACD crossover suggests the pair could be topping out in the short-term. On the daily chart, bullish invalidation is seen only below 110.00 levels. On the higher side, resistance is seen at 118.05 (Oct 2015 low) and 120.00 levels."
USD/CAD consolidates recent slide to nearly two-month lows
The USD/CAD pair's attempted tepid recovery bounce got sold into and the pair is now headed back towards the lower end of daily trading range.Currently trading around 1.3125-30 region, the pair maintained its bearish bias for the fifth straight session as a fresh leg of up-move in oil prices renewed buying interest around the commodity-linked currency - Loonie. In fact, WTI crude oil has managed to reverse early losses to currently trading with strength of around 0.4%, back above $53.0/barrel mark, and attracted fresh selling pressure around the major.The downslide, however, has been limited just above nearly two month low, in the vicinity of 1.3100 handle, touched on Monday in the aftermath of the weekend deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut their cumulative oil production. In absence of any major market moving releases, either from Canada or from the US, investors might take a pause ahead of the much anticipated two-day FOMC meeting starting today, leading to a bearish consolidation or possibly a short-covering bounce. In the meantime, broader sentiment surrounding oil market would remain a key driver for the pair's move on Tuesday.From current levels, 1.3100 handle might continue to act as immediate support below which the pair is seems to accelerate the slide towards the very important 200-day SMA support near 1.3075 region. On the upside, momentum above session peak resistance near 1.3140 level could get extended beyond yesterday's high resistance near 1.3160-65 region, back towards 100-day SMA hurdle near 1.3195-1.3200 region.
EUR/GBP dips to lows near 0.8350 on UK data
The solid performance of the British Pound today is dragging EUR/GBP to fresh daily lows in the mid-0.8300s.The European cross met extra downside pressure after UK’s inflation figures tracked by the CPI showed consumer prices rising more than initially estimated at an annualized 1.2% during November and 0.2% inter-month. Core prices have also followed suit, up 1.4% on a yearly basis vs. 1.3% expected.On this side of the Channel, German ZEW Survey for the current month saw the Economic Sentiment at 13.8 vs. 14.0 forecasted while Current Situation came at 63.5 vs. 59.1 previously estimated. The Economic Sentiment for the broader EMU has improved to 18.1, up from November’s 15.8.In the meantime, EUR/GBP has come to test fresh multi-day lows around 0.8350, at the same opening the door for a potential test of sub-0.8300 levels seen on December 5.The cross is now retreating 0.41% at 0.8353 facing the next support at 0.8298 (low Dec.5) ahead of 0.8248 (low Jul.14) and then 0.8119 (high Apr.7). On the other side, a surpass of 0.8482 (20-day sma) would aim for 0.8575 (high Dec.8) and finally 0.8639 (100-day sma).
WTI advances to daily highs above $53.00, API eyed
Crude oil prices are extending the bounce off daily lows, now lifting the West Texas Intermediate to the area of daily peaks above the $53.00 mark per barrel.Prices for the WTI have recovered some ground lost following a persistent profit taking sentiment in light of the strong gains seen in past session.It is worth mentioning that the barrel of the American benchmark for the sweet light crude oil has reached the mid-$54.00s on Monday levels last traded in July 2015 - after the recent deal between non-OPEC producers clinched over the weekend. In fact, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to cut the oil output by nearly 1.6 mbpd starting in January and intended to run during the first half of the next year. The deal aims to tackle the ongoing supply glut and to stabilize the oil market, although its effects on prices remain still surrounded by a lot of scepticism.Later in the NA session, the API’s weekly report on US crude stockpiles is due, followed by tomorrow’s EIA report along with the critical FOMC meeting, leaving the buck in centre stage.At the moment the barrel of WTI is gaining 0.59% at $53.14 and a breakout of $54.50 (2016 high Dec.12) would aim for 62.58 (high May 6 2015). On the other hand, the immediate support lines up at $52.59 (low Dec.12) followed by $51.66 (high Dec.9) and finally $49.61 (low Dec.8).
Gold resumes downslide ahead of the key FOMC meeting
Following yesterday's rebound from 10-month lows, Gold resumed with its bearish slide and has now reversed its entire tepid recovery move recorded on Monday.Currently trading around $1158-59 region, testing session lows, the metal drifted in to negative territory for third session in the previous four amid prevalent upbeat sentiment, as depicted by buoyant European equity markets and which tends to dent demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Moreover, expectations of imminent Fed rate-hike action continues to underpin the US Dollar, which was seen trying to recover some of its Monday's lost ground, is further weighing on dollar-denominated commodities - like gold. Hence, investors will remain focused on the final outcome from a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely expected to hike rates for the first time since Dec. 2015. However, market would be more interested to see the Fed’s updated economic and interest-rate projections. Signs of tighter Fed monetary policy stance in 2017 might now attract fresh bout of selling pressure around the non-yielding yellow metal. From current levels, $1151 region (Monday's multi-month low) seems to protect immediate downside, which if broken is likely to pave way for continuation of the near-term depreciating move towards its next support near $1140 region. On the upside, recovery back above $1165 immediate resistance, leading to a subsequent break through $1170 resistance, is likely to trigger a short-covering rally towards $1179-80 resistance area.
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