EUR/USD keeps range near 1.1100 on PMIs, NFP in focus
The EUR/USD side-trend extends into the European session, with the EUR bulls little impressed by the latest Euro area services PMI reports, as all eyes stay focused on the NFP report for next direction.Currently, EUR/USD trades -0.07% lower at 1.1098, unable to chew offers lined up near 1.1110 levels. The EUR/USD pair keeps its range-play intact in a 20-pips slim band, reflecting a typical scenario ahead of the crucial US labor market report.Further, the major failed to react to a series of mixed final services PMI reports from across the Euro area, with only the German services activity showing a slight improvement last month.Markets now eagerly await the US NFP data for fresh impetus on the EUR/USD pair, as a solid print is expected to seal in a Dec Fed rate hike deal and send the greenback on a roll higher against its main competitors.In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.1130 (100-DMA). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.1168 (daily S2) and from there to 1.1195 (200-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.1088 (daily low) below which 1.1067 (5-DMA) and 1.1000 (psychological levels/ 10-DMA) could be tested.

GBP/USD rebounds to fresh highs at 1.2485, NFP eyed
The GBP/USD pair found renewed bids at the mid-point of 1.24 handle, and from there attempted a solid recovery back towards multi-week highs of 1.2494.The cable reversed losses and jumped back on the bids on the back of fresh selling seen in the US dollar across the board, as markets resort to repositioning heading into the US NFP report.While the GBP bulls continue to cheer a slightly hawkish BOE decision and UK High Court ruling on Brexit, which reduced the chances of a ?Hard Brexit? landing.Next of note for the major remains the US employment data and BOE MPC member Forbes speech scheduled for release in the American session.At 1.2475, the pair finds immediate resistances placed at 1.2494/1.2500 (multi-week highs/ round number), 1.2541 (daily R1) and 1.2626 (pre-flash crash highs). While supports are lined up at 1.2417 (daily pivot) and 1.2345 (5-DMA) and below that at 1.2272 (10-DMA).

USD/JPY retreats in tandem with DXY, back at 103
The JPY bulls regained ground somewhat after a renewed risk-off wave hit the European markets, sending USD/JPY back towards 103 handle.A renewed rally in the USD/JPY pair lost steam just below Thursday? high, as the bears regained control amid wide-spread risk-aversion, refueled by negative European equities and subdued oil prices.Additionally, a retreat in the US dollar against its major peers (DXY) also partly contributed to the latest move lower in USD/JPY. The major is last seen exchanging hand at 103.02, up +0.05% on the day.The immediate focus now remains on the US payrolls data lined up for release in the NA session, with markets expecting 175k new job additions in the US economy last month versus 156k seen in Sept.In terms of technicals , the immediate resistance is located at 103.44 (daily R1). A break above the last, the major could test 103.67 (5-DMA) and 104.03 (20-DMA) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 102.85/83 (100-DMA/ daily low) next at 102.54 (multi-week lows) and below that at 102 (round number).

WTI remains depressed near $44.60, focus on NFP
Crude oil prices are extending on Friday their weekly decline, dragging the West Texas Intermediate to the vicinity of the $44.30 area per barrel.Prices for the WTI remain in the area of 2-month lows, falling almost uninterruptedly since fresh 2016 peaks just below the $52.00 recorded on October 19.Prices for the black gold have accelerated the downside this week following massive increases in crude oil supplies, as reported by the API (Tuesday) and the EIA (Wednesday), the latter with over 14 million barrels, the largest in EIA?s history.In addition, scepticism around the likeliness of a deal on an output freeze at the OPEC meeting in Vienna later in the month is on the rise, undermining prospects of any recovery in prices.Adding insult to injury, the OPEC said earlier in the week that the cartel has increased its oil production to 34 mbpd during October, collaborating with the downbeat sentiment among traders.Later in the NA session, October?s Non-farm Payrolls are due, with consensus seeing the economy to have added 175K jobs during last month. In addition a slew of FOMC governors are due to speak: Atlanta Fed D.Lockhart (2018 voter, centrist), L.Brainard (permanent voter, dovish), Dallas Fed R. Kaplan (2017 voter, neutral), Minneapolis Fed N.Kashkari (2017 voter, neutral) and S.Fischer (permanent voter, hawkish).Towards the end of the week, the report by Baker Hughes on the UD drilling activity is also due.At the moment the barrel of WTI is losing 0.04% at $44.64 and a breakdown of $44.19 (low Sep.27) would expose $43.53 (200-day sma) and finally $42.55 (low Sep.20). On the other hand, the next resistance aligns at $46.32 (100-day sma) followed by $47.22 (55-day sma) and finally $49.12 (20-day sma).

Gold inter-markets: Targets 200-DMA on stronger NFP
Gold has stalled its recent bullish momentum and is on an upside consolidative mode since Wednesday, when it reached fresh four-week highs at $ 1307.The range bound movement witnessed in gold in the latter part of this week is largely due to choppy trading activity surrounding the greenback across the board, in wake of US presidential elections scheduled next week.Gold continued to find support from risk-off sentiment amid US election jitters, which continued to dominate financial markets, and underpinned its safe-haven status.On Friday, a typical calm was spread around the gold markets, in anticipation of the highly influential US NFP data, which is likely to trigger massive volatility and have a significant impact on the US interest rates decision.A better NFP print is likely to seal in a Dec Fed hike deal, thus, dragging the non-interest bearing gold back towards 200-DMA at $ 1289 levels. While the prices could head higher for a retest of monthly tops and beyond, should the jobs report disappoint markets.Meanwhile, don't miss our US election panel with expert guests, Adam Button and Martin Armstrong, hosted by FXStreet's Ross Burland.

US NFP Preview: 7 major banks expectations from the October release
We are closing in on the October?s release of US Non-Farm Payrolls data. The following are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 7 major banks.After the September employment report indicated that the US labor markets continued to tread water, all the 7 major banks expects that the October NFP is likely to print a number in between 170K to 245K while given the steady job gains, the unemployment rate is likely to return to 4.9% in October. In addition, as the labor market continues to tighten, the wages are likely to picked up over the month.
Nomura
All things considered, we expect private payrolls to have expanded by 170k in October. We forecast that government payrolls have remained unchanged in October, implying that nonfarm payrolls increased by 170k. With manufacturing activity still soft, we think payrolls in the sector declined by 5k. Consensus is aligned with our forecasts for nonfarm and manufacturing payrolls. On the household survey measures, given the steady job gains, we forecast that the unemployment rate has returned to 4.9% in October (consensus predicts the same), following an uptick to 5.0% in September. Last, as the labor market continues to tighten, we think that wages likely picked up over the month. Plus, a favorable calendar quirk (fewer working days during the BLS survey reference period) should help boost the per hour wage. Taking these factors into account, we forecast that average hourly earnings have grown by 0.3% m (2.5%) in October. Consensus is also at 0.3% m- (2.6% y).
TDS
We expect an overall favorable tone to the October jobs report, reflecting payroll growth well above its breakeven pace and a pickup in wage gains. While the bar for a year-end rate hike is low in our view (barring a US election upset), the report is important for keeping December rate expectations firmly in place as any downside surprise will be noted by the Fed. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to post a 195k gain in October, with upward revisions to the prior two months. Largely underpinning our forecast is the pronounced pickup in ISM employment indicators. The unemployment rate likely is expected to slip back to 4.9% in line with sustained above-trend job growth and given that the September print was at the cutoff (4.96%). Timing of the reference week points to a strong 0.3% m/m print for average hourly earnings, keeping the pace of earnings growth stable at 2.6% y/y. We look for average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.4 hours.
Rabobank
If the market can tear itself away from its current fixation with politics, the release of the US October jobs report will get a look-in. This week?s FOMC meeting left investors with the impression that barring any disaster on the data front the Fed is prepared to hike rates in December. The market consensus for nonfarm payrolls lies at a respectable 173K, with hourly earnings expected to edge up by 0.3% m/m. Yesterday?s US September factory goods data slightly beat estimates while the final reading of the service ISM recorded a healthy rate of expansion. Durable goods data and initial unemployment claims, however, were disappointing.
MUFG
The release of the jobs data in the US may well end up reinforcing expectations of a fed rate hike in December but the market reaction is very likely to be delayed until beyond the result of Tuesday?s presidential election. Our internal NFP model gives us an estimate for today of 245k, well above the Bloomberg consensus of 170k. A stronger than expected NFP print today could well prompt a muted response given opinion polls in certain key swing states (New Hampshire the latest) show a tightening in the race.
BBH
Most look for US jobs growth to return toward this years average pace (178k) from overshooting it the past three months (average 192k). However, what this means is that the market is looking for a little improvement over September's 156k. Internals are important. There is some chance, largely due to rounding, some are looking for the unemployment rate to slip back to 4.9% from 5.0%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%. If so, that would keep the year over year pace at 2.6%, slight ahead of the CPI.The average work week is stable at 34.4 hours.
Danske Bank
Today, the US jobs report for October due out at 13:30 CET will be in focus. We continue to receive mixed signals about the labour market. Claims figures continue to signal job growth well above 200,000, while the Markit PMI employment index for October points to growth just above 100,000. We estimate jobs growth was 170,000 in October. The unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in September due to an increasing participation rate. That the unemployment and underemployment rates have moved sideways in 2016 indicates that there is still slack left in the labour market. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% in October, with the probability skewed towards a fall back to 4.9%. We estimate that average hourly earnings increased 0.3% m/m in October, implying an unchanged annual growth rate of 2.6% y/y. Wage growth has moved sideways in 2016, indicating that the underlying inflation pressure is still subdued.
RBC CM
US payrolls dominate the day ahead. The consensus is for a rise of 175K (RBC economists are in line) and this does not appear to have changed much after the ADP or ISM non-manufacturing (though both were weak). The consensus of forecasts that have been refreshed is little different at 171K. Even after the decline in Fed hike expectations as political uncertainty has risen this week, markets seem quite fully priced at around a 75% probability of a hike by year end. As such, we think USD would fall further on a weak outcome than it would rally on a strong one.


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